Louisville Leopards Football Week 5 Playoff Picture

Louisville 5.4000 (13th out of 27)

The Louisville Leopards dropped four places in the Division III, Region 9 standings with their 37-27 loss against the Lake Blue Streaks. Louisville sat just outside of the playoffs in 9th place a week ago, but after falling to 2-2 moved to 13th out of the 27 teams in the region. 

DIII, Region 9 Playoff Picture

Seven teams in Region 9 remain undefeated at 4-0 and all seven teams are currently filling what would be the top seven playoff spots if the season ended today. The New Philadelphia Quakers hold the top spot, while their rival the Dover Tornadoes are the lone 3-1 team inside the playoff picture currently holding the 8th seed. Louisville at 5.40000 Harbin Points is ahead of all other 2-2 teams and one 3-1 team in Youngstown East who currently sits in 15th. The Marlington Dukes are also 2-2 one spot behind the Leopards in 14th, but have significantly less points at 4.9250.

Perennial powerhouses Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary and Steubenville both would miss the playoffs if the season ended today as well. They sit just ahead of Louisville in 11th and 12th place both with a record of 3-1. There is a lot of season left to play and a lot of shuffling expected in Division III, Region 9 in the coming weeks, but with these teams outside of the playoffs you begin to see how tough this region truly is. In fact Louisville would be sitting in a playoff spot right now in Division III, Region 10 as the 8th seed with the points they have and in Division III, Region 12 they’d be on the brink of a home game as a 5th seed in the current standings.

The Canfield Cardinals who defeated the Leopards 24-21 in Week 1 also fell to 2-2 last week with a 38-0 loss at Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin dropping them to 19th in the Region. Yet even though the Lions manhandled the Cardinals, NDCL only sits in the 16th spot. So clearly, this region is loaded with talented teams which unfortunately will not all make the cut Harbin points wise.

Perry at Louisville Matchup and Projections

The Division III, Region 9 meat grinder is exactly why the Leopards need to defeat the Panthers this week. According to Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50, Louisville only has a 15% chance to make the playoffs coming into Week 5. Drew Pasteur has Louisville as a 3-point underdog at home with a 44% chance of a Leopards victory. If the Leopards can pull off the upset their playoff chances would double to 30%, but a loss against the Perry would dim their chance of making the playoffs to only 2%.

The Panthers started the season off 3-0 with victories over Canton Central Catholic, Akron East, and Naperville North (Illinois). However, Perry lost their Federal League opener against the Jackson Polar Bears (3-1) 27-14. With the loss, the Panthers come into the night sitting in 9th place in Division II, Region 5 and will be hungry to rebound in getting back into the playoff picture. Perry has a 62% chance to make the playoffs coming into Week 5. A win at Louisville improves their chances to 78%, while a loss would drop them to 41% at the midway mark of the 2019 campaign.

Louisville Vs. Perry Series History

The Panthers have dominated the Leopards in recent history winning 10 of the last 11 meetings overall dating back to 1984. Louisville’s only victory over Perry in that stretch was a 21-13 home win back on September 15, 1995. Their most recent meeting in the series came last year after a 20 year absence. The Panthers won the 2018 matchup 29-12 rushing out of their Wing T formation 63 times for 412 yards.

Louisville currently trails the all-time series against Perry 11-17 which includes a 5-9 record when hosting the Panthers.

Leopards Playoff Projections, Chances, and Rankings

The Leopards schedule is not for the faint of heart as it is the 3rd toughest in Region 9 and 5th toughest in Division III according to Fantastic 50. As previously mentioned, Louisville has a 15% chance of making the postseason coming into their game against Perry. Drew Pasteur projects the Leopards to finish with a 6-4 record giving them 17.47 Harbin Points and placing them in 13th outside of the playoffs.

Louisville still controls their own fate, because if they win out and go 8-2 there is a 100% chance they make the postseason with a 66% chance of having a home playoff game. A 7 win season would put the Leopards on the bubble with a 49% chance of making the playoffs..

Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 94th in the state overall and 18th in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school football playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 94th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 18th (Out of 107)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Division III Ranking: 5th toughest (Out of 107)

Projections

Projected Record: 6-4
Projected Harbin Points: 17.47
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 13th (Out of Playoffs)

Win Probabilities

4 Wins: 13%
5 Wins: 26%
6 Wins: 32%
7 Wins: 22%
8 Wins: 2%

Playoff Probabilities

Playoff chance
15% now (bubble if 7-3), 2% home
30% with a win over Perry, and 2% with a loss to Perry

More Conditional Playoff Info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 14.19 (9.96-21.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 17.47 (12.73-23.87) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 21.12 (15.76-26.94) 49% in, 3% home, proj. out
8W: 26.72 (22.03-31.72) 100% in, 66% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)

Best realistic scenario
2.0% WWWWWW 26.72 pts, 100% in, 66% home (#4, range #1-#8) Steubenville 14%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLLWLL 8.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% WWWWLW 20.99 pts, 47% in, 2% home (out, range #3-out) New Philadelphia 21%
17% LWWWLW 16.73 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out) Kenston 30%
11% LWLWLW 13.73 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
8.2% WWLWLW 17.94 pts, 6% in (out, range #5-out) New Philadelphia 39%
4.6% LLWWLW 13.63 pts, out
4.3% LLLWLW 10.86 pts, out
(31% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: North Canton Hoover (3-1 D2 R5) over Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-1 D3 R9)
Week 6: North Canton Hoover (3-1 D2 R5) over Massillon Perry (3-1 D2 R5)
Week 7: Warren Howland (2-2 D3 R9) over Youngstown East (3-1 D3 R9)
Week 5: Uniontown Green (1-3 D2 R6) over Canton GlenOak (1-3 D1 R1)
Week 10: North Canton Hoover (3-1 D2 R5) over Massillon Jackson (3-1 D1 R1)

Most likely first-round opponents
20% New Philadelphia (4-0)
12% Chagrin Falls Kenston (4-0)
11% Niles McKinley (4-0)
10% Ravenna (4-0)
10% Steubenville (3-1)

Championship Probabilities
1.6% Region 9 champ
0.4% Division 3 state champ

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
W4: 122.9 (2-2, #94, D3 #18) 15% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. 6-4, out
W3: 125.4 (2-1, #74, D3 #14) 33% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. 6-4, out
W2: 124.4 (1-1, #76, D3 #12) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. 6-4, out
W1: 120.4 (0-1, #101, D3 #17) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. 5-5, out
W0: 121.8 (0-0, #93, D3 #15) 31% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home, proj. 5-5, out
Last year 125.4 (6-4)

DIII, Region 9 Harbin Computer Rankings After Week 4

Pictures

Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography

View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the  Jim & Laura Photography Website

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