Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 8

By Leopard Nation · October 20, 2014

Louisville Leopards Football 2014 Vs. Canfield

Louisville 18.2750 (3rd)

If the season ended right now the 7-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. With their 54-14 win over Marlington Friday and other second level help the Leopards moved from the 6th to 3rd spot in DIII, Region 7. If the season ended today they would host the Chardon Hilltoppers in the Regional Quarterfinals. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Fantastic 50 claims that Louisville has already clinched a playoff birth, while this is 99% likely it is not a sure thing yet. If the Leopards defeat the Aviators Friday, then there will be very few scenarios (if any) where Louisville could miss the postseason. If they win out they will have an 99% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability shrinks to 74%. Chardon is the most likely first round opponent for the Leopards with a 32% chance of happening. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 64th in the state overall and 12th in Division III:

Leopards Statistical Probabilities

#64 Louisville (7-1) 130.3
Ranked #12 of 105 in Division III, #4 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.690, #191 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.569, #37 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 98% outright, 99% at least a share
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 8W-4% 9W-96%
Harbin projections (ranges): 8W-23.20(21.55-25.40) 9W-25.90(24.25-26.50)
Home game probabilities: 8W-74% 9W-99%
Seed projections (ranges): 8W-#4 (#2-#7) 9W-#3 (#2-#5)
Projected 25.90 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #3 seed (best #2, worst #7)
Clinched playoff berth, 99% chance of a home game
1st round opponents: Chardon 32%, Tallmadge 29%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 26%, St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 7%, Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 5%

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 8)

Rank	City	School	Average	Level 1	Level 2	L2 divisor	Playoff Status (unofficial)
IN THE PLAYOFFS
1	Hubbard	Hubbard	23.5500	42.0	183.0	100	control own destiny
2	Aurora	Aurora	19.9000	42.0	146.5	100	control own destiny
3	Louisville	Louisville	18.2750	37.0	136.5	100	.
4	Tallmadge	Tallmadge	17.5375	29.5	138.5	100	.
5	Akron	St Vincent-St Mary	16.6503	33.0	124.0	99	.
6	Chardon	Chardon	16.1500	34.0	119.0	100	.
7	Poland	Poland Seminary	14.8375	37.5	101.5	100	.
8	Chagrin Falls	Kenston	13.3250	31.0	94.5	100	.
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
9	Richfield	Revere	12.9750	29.0	93.5	100	.
10	Warren	Howland	12.9625	34.5	86.5	100	.
11	Akron	Buchtel	10.3750	23.0	73.5	98	.
12	Akron	Archbishop Hoban	10.0125	34.5	57.0	100	.
13	Chesterland	West Geauga	9.3750	21.0	67.5	100	.
14	Ravenna	Ravenna	9.2500	22.0	65.0	100	.
15	Canfield	Canfield	8.2250	23.0	53.5	100	.
16	Alliance	Alliance	7.8875	21.5	52.0	100	.
17	Alliance	Marlington	7.6625	20.5	51.0	100	.
18	Akron	East	6.8125	22.5	40.0	100	.
19	Akron	Springfield	5.5250	17.0	34.0	100	mathematically eliminated
20	Geneva	Geneva	4.9000	16.0	29.0	100	mathematically eliminated
21	Akron	Garfield	4.4250	17.0	23.0	100	mathematically eliminated
22	Akron	Coventry	4.2750	17.0	21.5	100	mathematically eliminated
23	Akron	North	3.4375	11.5	20.0	100	mathematically eliminated
24	Canton	Canton South	2.8375	5.5	21.5	100	mathematically eliminated
25	Niles	Niles McKinley	2.7250	5.0	21.0	100	mathematically eliminated
26	Akron	Kenmore	1.8375	11.5	4.0	100	mathematically eliminated
27	Norton	Norton	1.3500	4.0	8.5	100	mathematically eliminated