Louisville Leopards Football Playoff Scenarios

With the way that the OHSAA’s Harbin Computer Ratings playoff points system is setup, there are seemingly endless possible ways that teams that are still alive Week 10 can claim a playoff spot and continue their season. Below we will explore some of the ways that the Leopards can enter the postseason.

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Friday Updated Scenarios

Akron East won at Akron Ellet 50-8 last night. While this did not secure a playoff birth for the Dragons it does guarantee that they will finish ahead of Louisville in the final computer rankings, which eliminate all of the 5 game, 6 game, and 7 game scenarios I posted previously (you can still see them below). 

As a result, the Leopards will need to win and need a lot of help. Louisville needs two out of these three teams to lose on Friday: 6-3 Chagrin Falls Kenston who hosts 6-3 Mayfield, 5-4 New Philadelphia who hosts 5-4 Dover, and 5-4 Painesville Harvey who hosts 8-1 Lutheran West. 

In addition to two out of those three teams losing, the Leopards will need at least two out of the three opponents they won against earlier this season to win on Friday. They include 7-2 Northwest playing at 6-3 Canton South, 4-5 Green playing at 8-1 Lake, and 2-7 NDCL hosting 2-7 Lake Catholic.

That’s still not enough though. The Leopards will need some of Chagrin Falls Kenston or New Philadelphia’s opponents to lose in order to shrink their second level points enough to where Louisville can pass them. Painesville Harvey is not a factor in this scenario because if the Leopards win plus any 2 out of 3 combination of Northwest/Green/NDCL win then the Leopards will have at minimum 12.2551 Harbin point average which is greater than any average that Painesville Harvey can obtain if they loss (11.8000)

So here we go, here’s the scenarios I’ve come up with so far:

New Philadelphia Loss + Harvey Loss Scenarios

Note: New Philadelphia defeated both Ashland and Lexington. Lexington travels to Ashland on Friday and the difference between a win/loss is only .05 computer points for New Philadelphia and not enough to bump Louisville in or out in any scenario.

Louisville Win + New Philadelphia Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + NDCL Win + Northwest Win +

• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss
• CVCA Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss
• Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss

Louisville Win + New Philadelphia Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + NDCL Win +

• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss

Louisville Win + New Philadelphia Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + Northwest Win +

• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss

Louisville Win + New Philadelphia Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + NDCL Win +

• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss

Kenston Loss + Harvey Loss Scenarios

Louisville Win + Kenston Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + NDCL Win + Northwest Win +

• Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Madison Loss
• Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Willoughby South Loss
• Chagrin Falls Loss + Madison Loss + Willoughby South Loss

Louisville Win + Kenston Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + Northwest Win +

• Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Madison Loss + Willoughby South Loss

New Philadelphia Loss + Kenston Loss Scenarios

Louisville Win + New Philadelphia Loss + Kenston Loss + Green Win + NDCL Win + Northwest Win +

• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Madison Loss
• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Willoughby South Loss
• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Madison Loss + Willoughby South Loss
• CVCA Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Madison Loss
• CVCA Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Willoughby South Loss
• CVCA Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Madison Loss + Willoughby South Loss
• Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Madison Loss
• Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Willoughby South Loss
• Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Madison Loss + Willoughby South Loss

Louisville Win + New Philadelphia Loss + Kenston Loss + Green Win + Northwest Win +

• CVCA Loss + Mount Vernon Loss + Madison Comprehensive Loss + Chagrin Falls Loss + Eastlake North Loss + Madison Loss + Willoughby South Loss

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All below this was posted prior to Akron East’s 50-8 win over Akron Ellet. Feel free to read for understanding the whole Week 10 picture, but note that these scenarios don’t factor into Friday, only the scenarios above this.

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Louisville Must Win on Friday

First off, Louisville must win on Friday when they host the 6-1 Linsly Cadets at Louisville Leopards Stadium. This will be no small task as the Cadets have won five straight heading into Friday which has included victories over Cardinal Mooney 28-14, at Steubenville 28-27, and against Dover 21-20. The Big Red are the only common opponent between the two schools and Louisville lost at Steubenville 21-0 to open the season. 

Linsly is considered a Division VII school by the OHSAA’s enrollment standards and a victory over them would earn LHS 3.5 first level points. The Leopards can also receive 21.0 second level points from the six Cadets victories through last week. A victory will leave Louisville between 11.2347 and 12.8673 computer points, which is good enough to qualify them for the playoffs if a number of other teams fall below that mark. If the Leopards lose to Linsly then the maximum points they can obtain is 8.4672 which falls below each of the current top 17 teams and would leave them out of the top 16 qualifying schools in Division III, Region 9.

So for any scenario that puts Louisville in the playoffs, they must defeat Linsly on Friday.

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Other Teams That Must Lose

If the stars aligned and everything fell the Leopards way they could get as high as 14th in Region 7 when the dust settles in Week 10. Realistically, it is not likely that Louisville is going to surpass 6-3 Kenston or 5-4 New Philadelphia. Even if these teams lose and Louisville wins, it is still likely that these two teams will receive enough second level points from opponents they have defeated to make the tournament.

Assuming that surpassing those two teams is out of the picture, the Leopards are really competing against three other teams for that 16th and final playoff spot. They include 5-4 Akron East, 5-4 Painesville Harvey, and 3-6 Bedford. Akron East will travel to 4-5 Akron Ellet on Thursday. Painesville Harvey will host 8-1 Lutheran West on Friday. Bedford will travel to take on 5-4 Maple Heights on Friday. Though not a safe bet, the possibility is there for all three of these teams to lose to their Week 10 counterparts.

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Three 5-Game Playoff Scenarios

However, a Louisville win plus all three of these teams losing still does not guarantee the Leopards a postseason birth. Louisville will still need more help in earning second level points. They can obtain this help through the three teams they defeated this season: Northwest, Green, and Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin. As a result, the following scenarios are in play:

• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + NDCL Win
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Green Win + Northwest Win
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + NDCL Win + Northwest Win

Any of these three scenarios would put the Leopards into the playoffs. These three 5-result scenarios are the smallest parlay that can propel Louisville to the postseason. This is because a Bedford loss is not needed in any of these scenarios. Louisville would have more points (at least 12.251-12.3571) in any of these scenarios than Bedford could obtain if they and the teams they defeated earlier this year all won (11.9965).

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6-Game Playoff Scenarios

I have not had time to go through every scenario. However, below are some other Week 10 scenarios involving six different games that would allow Louisville to qualify for the postseason:

• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Green Win + Brush Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Green Win + North Royalton Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Green Win + Akron Firestone Loss

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7-Game Playoff Scenarios

Hawken is 7-2 and traveling to 4-5 Crestwood. Both are opponents that Painesville Harvey defeated. Since Crestwood is Division V, a loss to Division III Hawken would shrink Painesville Harvey’s max points to 11.7000 and the Leopards minimum if they Win plus NDCL or Northwest win is 11.7449. Therefore the following scenarios would put Louisville in the playoffs:

• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Brush Loss + Crestwood Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + North Royalton Loss + Crestwood Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Crestwood Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Brush Loss + Crestwood Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + North Royalton Loss + Crestwood Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Crestwood Loss

Additionally if Crestwood would defeated Hawken, these other combination of Akron East and Painesville Harvey opponent losses would send the Leopards to Week 11:

• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Brush Loss + Wickliffe Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + North Royalton Loss + Wickliffe Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Wickliffe Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Brush Loss + Wickliffe Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + North Royalton Loss + Wickliffe Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Wickliffe Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Brush Loss + Cardinal Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + North Royalton Loss + Cardinal Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Cardinal Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Brush Loss + Cardinal Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + North Royalton Loss + Cardinal Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Cardinal Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Brush Loss + Grand Valley Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + North Royalton Loss + Grand Valley Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + Northwest Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Grand Valley Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Brush Loss + Grand Valley Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + North Royalton Loss + Grand Valley Loss
• Louisville Win + Akron East Loss + Painesville Harvey Loss + Bedford Loss + NDCL Win + Akron Firestone Loss + Grand Valley Loss

There are likely more scenarios and we will continue compiling these scenarios as time permits and update this post following the Akron East at Akron Ellet game on Thursday. One interesting factor is Akron East is playing this game only five days after playing Saturday at Akron Garfield. Louisville is not technically eliminated with an Akron East loss, but all of the scenarios above would be off the table and it would really dim the Leopards chances. If Akron East does win, we will update this post before Friday’s game to show what scenarios are still in play.

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