Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 6

By Leopard Nation · Published October 5, 2016 · Updated October 5, 2016

Brody Hahn Louisville Leopards Vs. Marlington Dukes 2016 Football

Louisville 6.4667 (10th out of 27)

With their 24-21 loss against the Marlington Dukes this past week, the 3-3 Louisville Leopards are now on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Louisville is currently ranked 10th in the Harbin Computer Rankings with only the top 8 teams qualifying for Division III, Region 9. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Still hope remains as the Leopards head into Week 7 against the West Branch Warriors. According to Fantastic50.net, Louisville currently has a 60% chance to make the postseason and that probability can increase to 67% with a win over the visiting Warriors on Friday. A loss would be detrimental to the Leopards as it would drop their playoff chances to just 21%, Louisville is an 18 point favorites at home against West Branch this week and has covered the spread set by Joe Pasteur in each of the past 3 games.

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The Leopards can gain 5.0 1st Level Harbin Points with a win and also 15.5 2nd Level points from the Warriors as well. Louisville got a big boost when Canfield beat Boardman last week 24-20. This gave the Leopards 6.0 second level computer points. Alliance also won a rescheduled Saturday Morning game at West Branch 34-24 to add 5.0 second level points to Louisville’s total. They can also earn up to 16.0 second level points this week from the following games:

5.5 – If Canfield wins at Niles McKinley
5.5 – If Alliance wins at home against Carrollton
5.0 – If Minerva wins at home against Salem

If the Leopards make the playoffs, they can expect to hit the road in Week 11. Louisville has just a 2% chance of earning a home game in the first round of the playoffs. Even if they win out, the chance of a home game at Louisville Leopards Stadium is only 4%. However, winning their remaining four games would give them a 93% chance of making the postseason.

If the Leopards would make the playoffs they could face some familiar faces. Louisville is given a 28% chance to rematch with the Archbishop Hoban Knights and there is a 27% chance that they could get a grudge match at Marlington. Other potential opponents include New Philadelphia (22% chance), West Geauga (6% chance), and Canfield (4% chance).

Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 148th in the state overall and 22nd in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 148th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 22st (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 7th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Overall: 131st (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 15th (Out of 108) toughest

Projections

Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 7th Seed

Win Probabilities

4 Wins: 1%
5 Wins: 10%
6 Wins: 38%
7 Wins: 50%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: 60%
Chance of a Home Game: 2%

Playoff Chance with win over West Branch: 67%
Playoff Chance with loss to West Branch: 21%

Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: no playoff berth
5W: 13.27 (11.05-16.30), 2% in, not home, proj. out
6W: 16.10 (13.45-18.30), 34% in, 1% home, proj. out (#4-out)
7W: 18.70 (16.95-20.90), 93% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
50% win all – 18.70 pts, 93% in and 4% home (#7, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 27%)

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLWW – 13.10 pts, 1% in, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
15% WLWW – 15.65 pts, 25% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 54%)
9.2% WWLW – 15.75 pts, 35% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 52%)
8.7% LWWW – 16.10 pts, 35% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 54%)
5.9% WWWL – 16.65 pts, 56% in (#8, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 47%)
2.5% WLLW – 13.15 pts, 1% in, range #8-out)
(7% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round opponents
28% Akron Hoban (5-1)
27% Alliance Marlington (6-0)
22% New Philadelphia (5-1)
6% West Geauga (4-2)
4% Canfield (4-2)
13% some other opponent

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 60% (bubble if 6-4), 2% H, proj. #7

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 6)

Rank	W-L	ID #	City	School	Average	Level 1	Level 2	L2 divisor
1	6-0	964	Alliance	Marlington	15.3667	31.0	102.0	100
2	5-1	724	Akron	Archbishop Hoban	11.7313	26.0	72.5	98
3	5-1	1106	New Philadelphia	New Philadelphia	10.2500	25.5	60.0	100
4	4-2	736	Warren	Howland	8.8500	22.5	51.0	100
5	4-2	1678	Chesterland	West Geauga	8.7000	21.0	52.0	100
6	5-1	276	Medina	Buckeye	8.4500	25.5	42.0	100
7	3-3	1384	Akron	St Vincent-St Mary	7.6787	17.0	47.0	97
8	4-2	304	Canfield	Canfield	7.5667	23.5	36.5	100
9	4-2	1288	Richfield	Revere	7.0167	23.5	31.0	100
10	3-3	902	Louisville	Louisville	6.4667	16.0	38.0	100
11	3-3	112	Alliance	Alliance	6.3167	14.5	39.0	100
12	3-3	994	Niles	Niles McKinley	6.1167	16.0	34.5	100
13	3-3	1264	Poland	Poland Seminary	6.0833	15.5	35.0	100
14	3-3	1281	Ravenna	Ravenna	6.0333	17.0	32.0	100
15	3-3	322	Carrollton	Carrollton	5.9520	14.5	35.0	99
16	3-3	472	Dover	Dover	5.7167	16.0	30.5	100
17	3-3	478	Akron	East	5.6833	17.0	28.5	100
18	2-4	1522	Tallmadge	Tallmadge	4.8667	11.5	29.5	100
19	2-4	824	Mentor	Lake Catholic	4.6970	10.0	30.0	99
20	3-3	428	Akron	Coventry	4.5833	15.5	20.0	100
21	3-3	1158	Norton	Norton	4.2167	16.0	15.5	100
22	2-4	1472	Akron	Springfield	3.9833	11.0	21.5	100
23	2-4	634	Geneva	Geneva	3.7667	11.5	18.5	100
24	2-4	274	Akron	Buchtel	2.4667	11.5	5.5	100
25	1-5	800	Akron	Kenmore	1.5227	5.5	6.0	99
26	1-5	698	Painesville	Harvey	1.4333	6.5	3.5	100
27	0-6	390	Lodi	Cloverleaf	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100