Louisville Leopards Playoff Picture Heading Into Week 10
The Louisville Leopards Football Team will enter Week 10 with a 75% chance to make the playoffs according to Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50. Louisville has a 1% chance to finish as the #10 seed, a 26% chance to finish as the #11 seed, a 49% chance to take the final spot in the Division II, Region 7 playoffs at #12, and a 25% chance to fall outside of the playoff picture.
While there are extreme long-shot scenarios that could put the Leopards in with a loss, they will realistically need to take care of business at home in Week 10 against the winless Wooster Generals to earn 6.0 first-level Harbin points. A win alone is not enough to put Louisville into the playoffs. They will need multiple other Region 7 teams, or the previous opponents that those teams defeated, to lose in combination with a win over Wooster in order to clinch. We have outlined the paths of least resistance to achieve a clinching scenario below.
Update: OHSAA Awarded Forfeit Wins Wednesday
The OHSAA announced that several forfeits would be factored in now, sending the state into a frenzy. This includes Northwest’s week one cancelled game with Norton. The Indians win by virtue of forfeit and since Louisville defeated Northwest, the Leopards have been awarded 5.0 additional second-level points. Consequently this has changed our original clinching scenarios both on Louisville’s end as well as some forfeits impacting other Region 7 teams.
Week 10 preliminary update has been posted including several OHSAA forfeits.
Please remember playoff statuses are always unofficial as new information can be received at any time.https://t.co/PuGdHe3SZB
— Joe Eitel (@JoeEitel) October 22, 2025
Norton has appealed this ruling, but the OHSAA does not appear to have plans to change it.
Simplest Clinching Scenarios
Below are the revised, most direct clinching scenarios for the Leopards to make the playoffs without taking into account any second-level points from other Division II, Region 7 opponents. Alliance and Marlington play each other week 10, so Louisville will be getting 5.0-5.5 second level points depending on the winner and that does not play a factor now that the OHSAA awarded Northwest a forfeit win over Norton Week 1 giving the Leopards an additional 5.0 second-level points.
Louisville Wins + Central Catholic Wins OR Northwest Wins OR New Philadelphia Win
AND these teams lose: Franklin Heights, Whitehall-Yearling, Watkins Memorial
Louisville Wins
AND these teams lose: Franklin Heights, Whitehall-Yearling, Watkins Memorial, Dublin Scioto
Please note that these are just the simplest clinching scenarios in what is the very confusing world of navigating the Ohio high school playoff picture. If none of these scenarios pan out, it is still possible for the Leopards to make the playoffs if we get enough second-level points (wins by our opponents we already defeated) and other Region 7 teams’ do not get the help they need from the opponents they have defeated (their second-level points).
There are numerous other clinching scenarios for Louisville to make the playoffs when you factor in second-level points. It would be unrealistic to list them all.
Who is Louisville’s Most Likely Playoff Opponent?
Drew Pasteur now gives Louisville a 30% chance to play at Canal Winchester Week 11 if the Leopards qualify for the playoffs. There is now a 24% chance Louisville could journey to archrival North Canton Hoover. Pasteur’s probabilities give the Leopards a 16% chance to play at undefeated Ashland, a 12% chance to travel to Westerville South, and a 9% chance to go to Worthington Kilbourne.
No matter who the Leopards play, they will be playing at their opponent’s home stadium.
Most likely first round opponents
Canal Winchester (8-1) 30%
Hoover (7-2) 24%
Ashland (9-0) 16%
Westerville South (7-2) 12%
Worthington Kilbourne (7-2) 9%
Most likely second round opponents
Canal Winchester (8-1) 31%
Ashland (9-0) 27%
Massillon Washington (6-3) 25%
DeSales (Columbus) (7-2) 11%
Westerville South (7-2) 4%
When Will We Know if the Leopards Made It?
Realistically some time Friday night as the scores roll in around the state. Once confirmed, Leopard Nation will make the announcement on louisvilleleopards.org and social media whether or not the Leopards qualified for the playoffs. There is a small possibility that we will have to wait on some Saturday results to know for sure.
Note: This confirmation will be based solely on how forfeits are being treated by the most recent OHSAA ruling. There could be a change to that ruling within the next few days that could end up changing our fate.
When Will We Know Where Louisville is Headed Week 11?
If Louisville qualifies for the postseason, we will not likely know where the Leopards are headed to for the regional semifinals until late Saturday afternoon. The Massillon-McKinley game, played Saturday at 2:00 PM, will likely shift the final Region 7 seeding. If The Tigers win, Massillon will earn a bye and push out one of the top four seeds, such as Ashland or Canal Winchester If the Bulldogs win, it will likely push Massillon out of the top 4. Drew Pasteur projects the Tigers as the #5 seed if they lose to McKinley, which means they would host the #12 seed.
If the Leopards make the playoffs, they have a 65% chance to be the #12 seed, a 33% chance to be the #11 seed, and a 1% chance to be the #10 seed.
Snapping the Playoff Drought
The Leopards have not earned their way into the playoffs since 2015. Louisville’s last playoff victory came that season, a 42-7 win at Poland Seminary.
The Leopards last playoff game was technically in 2020, a 14-7 home loss to NDCL. Every team was invited into the playoffs that year due to the pandemic.
Louisville has also not had a winning season since 2018, a streak they look to put behind them in their final home game against the Wooster Generals Friday.
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