Louisville Leopards 2018 Football Playoff Outlook After Week 1
The Louisville Leopards opened up with a 21-14 road loss to fellow Division III, Region 9 foe in the Canfield Cardinals. The good news is that 16 out of the 27 teams in Division III, Region 9 lost last week, which leaves Louisville tied for 12th in the region which will send 8 to the OHSAA Playoffs. Below you can see the full breakdown of Harbin Playoff points for each school in Region 9 courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Louisville at North Canton Game Significance
Louisville will travel to face the North Canton Hoover Vikings this week. Hoover is currently tied with 7 other teams for 4th place in Division II, Region 7 after their 33-14 road victory over the Brush Arcs (Division II, Region 5) last week. According to Fantastic50.net, Louisville is a 12-point underdog on the road this week at North Canton. The Leopards covered Drew Pasteur’s 14 spread favoring the home Cardinals last week.
It is way too early to know how anything will play out, but here is what’s on the line this week according to Drew Pasteur’s breakdown of statistical probabilities. After the loss last week, Louisville has just an 8% chance to make the playoffs and only a 2% chance of hosting a first round playoff game. A win at Hoover Friday will more than double their odds of making the playoffs to 17%.
If the Leopards defeat the Vikings Friday, LHS would gain 6.0 1st Level Harbin Points and 6.0 2nd Level Harbin points courtesy of North Canton’s win over Brush in Week 1. This would bump their Harbin Points average from 0.0 to 6.6. Drew Pasteur gives Louisville a 27% chance to win at Hoover this Friday.
The Leopards have lost the last two matchups with the Vikings and haven’t lost to North Canton three times in a row since 1997-1999. Louisville leads the all-time series over Hoover 55-35-5, which includes a 25-20-2 mark in game’s played at North Canton.
Win and Playoff Opponent Probabilities
Drew Pasteur predicts the Leopards final record to be 4-6, which would leave them out of the playoffs. This breakdown gives LHS a 28% chance they will win 4 games, a 25% chance they will win 3 games, and a 19% chance that they will win 5 games. They would be on the bubble with 6 victories, which would give them a 47% chance at the playoffs. If Louisville can go 7-2 the rest of the way, they would have a 91% chance to make it in and capture the 5th seed in the Region. 7 Wins would also give them a 45% chance at a home playoff game first round.
If the Leopards can make it in, a rematch with Canfield would be the most likely first round scenario. They have a 16% chance of facing the Cardinals, a 12% chance to take on Mentor Lake Catholic, and a 10% chance to play Akron East in the first round if they made the postseason.
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Louisville Leopards Statistical Probabilities After Week 1
Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 29th in Division III and 9th in Region 9. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Rankings
Division III Ranking: 29th (Out of 107)
Region 9 Ranking: 9th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Division III Ranking: 9th (Out of 107) toughest
Projections
Projected Record: 4-6
Projected Harbin Points: 11.60
Projected Region 9 Ranking: Projected Out of Playoffs
Win Probabilities
2 Wins: 13%
3 Wins: 25%
4 Wins: 28%
5 Wins: 19%
6 Wins: 8%
Other: 7%
Playoff Probabilities
Chance of Making Playoffs: 8% (bubble if 6-4)
Chance of a Home Game: 2%
Playoff Chance with win Over North Canton Hoover: 17%
Playoff Chance with loss to North Canton Hoover: 4%
Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: 11.60 (6.25-18.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 15.05 (8.50-23.15) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 18.20 (12.00-24.40) 47% in, 9% home, proj. out
7W: 21.48 (15.30-27.85) 91% in, 45% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
Best Realistic Scenario
1.4% LWWLWLWLW 13.38 Points, Out of Playoffs
Worst Realistic Scenario
1.1% LLLLLLWLL 2.80 Points, Out of Playoffs
Most likely other scenarios
2.6% LWWLWLWLL 10.15 Points, Out
2.1% LWLLWLWLL 7.00 Points, Out
1.7% LLWLWLWLL 7.82 Points, Out
1.7% LWLLLLWLL 4.85 Points, Out
1.6% LWWLLLWLL 8.05 Points, Out
1.4% LLLLWLWLL 4.60 Points, Out
(86% other outcome)
Teams to Root For
Week 2: Uniontown Lake (1-0 D2 R7) over Dover (1-0 D2 R7)
Week 2: Ashland (1-0 D2 R7) over Clyde (1-0 D3 R10)
Week 8: Groveport Madison (0-1 D1 R3) over Newark (0-1 D1 R2)
Week 10: Coldwater (1-0 D6 R24) over Maria Stein Marion Local (1-0 D6 R24)
Week 6: Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (1-0 D4 R13) over West Toronto Prep (via Silverthorn CI) ON (0-1 D3)
Most Likely 1st Round Playoff Opponent
16% Canfield (1-0)
12% Mentor Lake Catholic (1-0)
10% Akron East (1-0)
9% Chagrin Falls Kenston (1-0)
8% Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (1-0)
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
W1: 115.6 (0-1, #151, D3 #29) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% Home, Projected Out
W0: 116.8 (0-0, #164, D3 #34) 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% Home, Projected Out
Last year 114.7 (5-5)
Schedule, Results, and Early Odds/Lines
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-21 A #63 Canfield (1-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) A #66 North Canton Hoover (1-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 12 (73%)
Sep 07 (W3) H #168 Uniontown Green (0-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 14 (W4) H #156 Uniontown Lake (1-0 D2 R7), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) A #54 Massillon Perry (1-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #180 Youngstown Ursuline (0-1 D4 R13), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #62 Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (1-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #258 Canfield South Range (0-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #15 Massillon Washington (1-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 22 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #120 Canton Central Catholic (1-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 1)
| Current Rank |
W-L | City | School | Current Average |
Level 1 | Level 2 | L2 divisor |
| 1t | 1-0 | Akron | East | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 1t | 1-0 | Mentor | Lake Catholic | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 3t | 1-0 | Akron | Coventry | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100 |
| 3t | 1-0 | Chardon | Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100 |
| 5t | 1-0 | Canfield | Canfield | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 5t | 1-0 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 5t | 1-0 | Richfield | Revere | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 8t | 1-0 | Lodi | Cloverleaf | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100 |
| 8t | 1-0 | Chagrin Falls | Kenston | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100 |
| 10t | 1-0 | Beloit | West Branch | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 10t | 1-0 | Millersburg | West Holmes | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Alliance | Alliance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Aurora | Aurora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Medina | Buckeye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Chardon | Chardon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Geneva | Geneva | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Painesville | Harvey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Warren | Howland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Louisville | Louisville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Alliance | Marlington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | New Philadelphia | New Philadelphia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Niles | Niles McKinley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Akron | North | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Norton | Norton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Akron | Springfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Akron | St Vincent-St Mary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| 12t | 0-1 | Tallmadge | Tallmadge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
Pictures
Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography
View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the Jim & Laura Photography Website
