Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 3

By Leopard Nation · Published September 13, 2016 · Updated September 15, 2016

Drew Doerschuk Jimmy Leonard Casey Nau Louisville Leopards Football Defense 2016

Louisville 2.9833 (13th out of 27)

With their 26-0 loss to the Austintown Fitch Falcons on Friday, the 1-2 Louisville Leopards are currently on the outside looking in at making the playoffs in Division III, Region 9. Luckily there are 7 weeks of football remaining and a decent amount of points to obtain as opposing NBC schools went 10-11 in non-conference play the past three weeks.

Louisville currently sits in 13th place out of the 27 teams in their region. Marlington is actually in 1st place in Region 9 and fellow NBC member Carrollton is 3rd. Canfield, who the Leopards defeated in Week 1, currently stands in 7th place in the region. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Louisville picked up 6.0 second level points courtesy of Canfield’s 44-12 home win at Kenston in Week 3. The Cardinals travel to face the Division II Lakeside Dragons (1-2) which is another opportunity for the Leopards to pick up 6.0 second level Harbin Points.

This week Louisville hosts the Alliance Aviators (1-2) who picked up their first win of the year at home against Division V foe Crestview 33-14 in Week 3. If the Leopards take care of business at home against the Aviators, they would pick up 5.5 first level points and additionally gain 4.5 second level points.

Fantastic50.net has Louisville as a 25 point favorite at home this week against Alliance with a 92% chance to beat the Aviators. The Leopards have yet to beat the spread in each of the first three weeks as they were favored to beat Canfield by 8 (Louisville Won 21-17), beat Hoover by 7 (Louisville Lost 24-21), and were 10 point underdogs against Austintown Fitch (Louisville Lost 26-0).

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Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Louisville
currently has a 38% chance to make the postseason and an 11% to host a home playoff game. A victory this week against Alliance would increase those chances to 43%, where as a loss would decrease their chances to just 18%. The Leopards need all the points they can get after their 1-2 start and thus getting the win in every game here on out is paramount.

Louisville still controls their own playoff destiny. They are given a 9.3% chance to win out the rest of the way and if they did they would make the playoffs in every scenario. They would also have an 88% chance to host a playoff game in the first round.

While the season is young, Fanatastic50.net projects Louisville’s most likely first round opponents as the
Marlington Dukes (21% chance), Archbishop Hoban Knights (19% chance), New Philadelphia Quakers (14% chance). Other possibilities include a playoff rematch with Poland (7%) and a 2016 rematch with Canfield (6%). Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 127th in the state overall and 17th in Division III.

Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 127th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 17th (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 6th (Out of 27)

Projections

Projected Record: 6-4
Projected Harbin Points: 15.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 9th Seed

Win Probabilities

4 Wins: 4%
5 Wins: 18%
6 Wins: 36%
7 Wins: 33%
8 Wins: 9%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: 38%
Chance of a Home Game: 11%

Playoff Chance with win Over Alliance: 43%
Playoff Chance with loss to Alliance: 18%

Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: no playoff berth
5W: 12.65 (9.20-18.65), 1% in, not home, proj. out
6W: 15.70 (11.60-22.30), 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#3-out)
7W: 19.15 (16.25-24.35), 75% in, 9% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
8W: 23.60 (21.35-25.00), 100% in, 88% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)

Best Realistic Scenario
9.3% win all – 23.60 pts, In and 88% home (#3, range #1-#7) (Medina Buckeye 13%)

Worst Realistic Scenario
3.8% WWLWLLW – 11.60 pts, Out

Most Likely Scenarios
17% WWLWWWW – 18.65 pts, 68% in (#8, range #2-out) (Alliance Marlington 33%)
15% WWLWLWW – 14.50 pts, 1% in, range #6-out)
8.5% WWWWLWW – 19.20 pts, 72% in (#8, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 27%)
4.1% LWLWWWW – 16.10 pts, 8% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 41%)
4.0% WWLWWLW – 16.10 pts, 9% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 46%)
3.8% LWLWLWW – 12.00 pts, Out
(35% some other outcome)

Most Likely First-round Opponents
21% Alliance Marlington (3-0)
19% Akron Hoban (2-1)
14% New Philadelphia (2-1)
7% Poland (2-1)
6% Canfield (2-1)
33% some other opponent

Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 8)

Rank	W-L	ID #	City	School	Average	Level 1	Level 2	L2 divisor
1	3-0	964	Alliance	Marlington	7.7000	15.0	27.0	100
2	3-0	1288	Richfield	Revere	6.9333	17.5	11.0	100
3	3-0	322	Carrollton	Carrollton	6.2980	14.5	14.5	99
4	2-1	724	Akron	Archbishop Hoban	6.1833	11.5	23.5	100
5	2-1	1522	Tallmadge	Tallmadge	5.0833	11.5	12.5	100
6	2-1	1264	Poland	Poland Seminary	5.0000	10.5	15.0	100
7	2-1	304	Canfield	Canfield	4.8833	11.5	10.5	100
8	2-1	276	Medina	Buckeye	4.5667	11.0	9.0	100
9	2-1	1106	New Philadelphia	New Philadelphia	4.4333	10.0	11.0	100
10	2-1	824	Mentor	Lake Catholic	4.3833	10.0	10.5	100
11	2-1	994	Niles	Niles McKinley	4.3333	10.0	10.0	100
12	2-1	1384	Akron	St Vincent-St Mary	4.0000	12.0	0.0	100
13	1-2	902	Louisville	Louisville	2.9833	5.5	11.5	100
14	1-2	634	Geneva	Geneva	2.6000	6.0	6.0	100
15	1-2	736	Warren	Howland	2.5000	6.0	5.0	100
16	1-2	112	Alliance	Alliance	2.4500	4.5	9.5	100
17t	1-2	478	Akron	East	2.3833	5.5	5.5	100
17t	1-2	1158	Norton	Norton	2.3833	5.5	5.5	100
17t	1-2	1472	Akron	Springfield	2.3833	5.5	5.5	100
20	1-2	1678	Chesterland	West Geauga	2.3333	5.5	5.0	100
21	1-2	698	Painesville	Harvey	2.1667	6.5	0.0	100
22	1-2	472	Dover	Dover	2.1167	5.0	4.5	100
23	1-2	1281	Ravenna	Ravenna	2.0000	6.0	0.0	100
24	1-2	800	Akron	Kenmore	1.8333	5.5	0.0	99
25	1-2	428	Akron	Coventry	1.6667	5.0	0.0	100
26t	0-3	274	Akron	Buchtel	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100
26t	0-3	390	Lodi	Cloverleaf	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100