Louisville Leopards 2015 Football Playoff Picture After Week 6

Louisville 9.4667 (6th)

With their 47-7 victory over the Marlington Dukes Friday and some help in second level points the
Beatty's Football Shirt 2015Louisville Leopards moved from 7th place to 6th place in the Division III, Region 7 Playoff Rankings. If the season ended today they would be traveling to third seeded Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary for the opening round of the playoffs. Akron Archbishop Hoban currently holds the top seed in DIII, Region 7. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Louisville currently has a 95% chance to make the postseason. If the Leopards defeat the Warriors this week then their playoff chances increase to 99%, however if they fall at West Branch their chances will decrease to 81%. Louisville also controls their own destiny statistically speaking. If the Leopards win out then they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

Louisville currently has a 27% chance of hosting a first round playoff game. If the Leopards win out then they will have a 45% chance of hosting a first round playoff game, but if they lose just one more game then their chances of playing Week 11 under the lights of Louisville Leopards Stadium will shrink to just 4%. Fantastic 50 gives Louisville a 58% chance of winning out.

In the first round the Leopards have the greatest chance to play 6-0 Medina Buckeye. Fantastic 50 gives this scenario a 35% chance of happening. Other likely first round opponents include Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary (5-1) 30%, Poland (6-0) 14%, and West Geauga (5-1) 10%. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 85th in the state overall and 11th in Division III.

Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 85th
Division III Ranking: 11th (Out of 108)
Region 7 Ranking: 5th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Strength of schedule – 0.669
State: 199th Toughest (Out of 720)
DIII Comparison: 36th Toughest (Out of 108)

Projections

Projected Record: 9-1
Projected Harbin Points: 25.05
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 5th Seed

Win Probabilities

6 Wins: 1%
7 Wins: 7%
8 Wins: 35%
9 Wins: 57%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: 95%
Chance of a Home Game: 27%

Playoff Chance with win Over West Branch: 99%
Playoff Chance with loss to West Branch: 81%

Playoff Chance By Win Scenarios
6W: 14.85 (12.25-18.50), 4% in, not home, proj. out
7W: 17.90 (14.25-22.60), 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#4-out)
8W: 21.15 (18.35-25.40), 98% in, 4% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
9W: 25.05 (23.25-27.60), 100% in, 45% home, proj. #5 (#1-#7)

Best Realistic Scenario
58% win all – 25.05 pts, In and 45% home (#5, range #1-#7)

Worst Realistic Scenario
3.0% LWLW – 16.55 pts, 15% in, range #6-out)

Most Likely Other Scenarios
16% LWWW – 21.05 pts, 98% in and 3% home (#6, range #3-out)
12% WWLW – 20.60 pts, 96% in and 1% home (#6, range #4-out)
4.4% WWWL – 23.00 pts, In and 13% home (#5, range #3-#7)
3.2% WLWW – 22.60 pts, In and 11% home (#5, range #3-#8)
(5% some other outcome)

Most Likely First-round Opponents
35% Medina Buckeye (6-0)
30% Akron SVSM (5-1)
14% Poland (6-0)
10% West Geauga (5-1)
5% Akron Hoban (6-0)
6% some other opponent

Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summary
Pre: 121.6 (#106, D3 #20) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 38% H, proj. #4
W1: 125.0 (#76, D3 #12) 88% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #3
W2: 128.1 (#61, D3 #9) 96% (need 7-3), 70% H, proj. #2
W3: 126.2 (#75, D3 #12) 92% (need 7-3), 52% H, proj. #6
W4: 123.1 (#95, D3 #15) 90% (need 7-3), 34% H, proj. #6
W5: 123.4 (#93, D3 #13) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 38% H, proj. #5
W6: 124.4 (#85, D3 #11) 95% (bubble if 7-3), 27% H, proj. #5

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 6)

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