Projected Enrollment Breakdown Keeps Louisville in Division II

OHSAA 2014-15 Enrollment Figures

The Louisville Leopards may be staying in Division II for football and moving to DI in every other sport according to the latest release of projected enrollment figures by the OHSAA.

According to the figures, the current Grades 9-11 have gained 101 more boys & 12 more girls compared to the previous 2012-13 enrollment figures. Louisville will have 479 boys in the new enrollment figures compared to just 378 in the previous figures and also 432 girls compared to 419 before.

Through calculation and problem solving, I have projected how the OHSAA will divide the seven divisions for the 2013 Football Season. (Explanation at the bottom of the post when available.)

Division I – 643 to 1,266

Division II – 428 to 642

Division III – 309 to 427

Division IV – 242 to 308

Division V – 177 to 241

Division VI – 120 to 176

Division VII – 30 to 118

NBC Teams Projected Enrollment for 2013-14

Louisville will still by far be the biggest NBC school, but the other schools in the NBC have shifted around some as well. The gap between Louisville and Salem is huge as the Leopards will have 240 more boys and 194 more girls to work with than the Quakers.

Carrollton and Minerva also increased substantially in terms of boys as they will become the second and third largest schools in the NBC. Alliance dropped from having the second most boys to the fifth most boys in the conference. Carrollton, Minerva, and Marlington will be in DIII; Alliance, West Branch, and Canton South will enter DIV, and Salem will be the lone DV member.

Perhaps even more interesting are the girls enrollment figures. While Louisville is again by far the largest with 432 and Salem is by far the smallest with 238, teams 2-7 only differ by 12 girls (2. Carrollton 296, 7. Minerva 284).

This is based off the projected boys enrollment data from October 2012 for Grades 9, 10, 11.  Here’s a look at where NBC teams will be come 2013-14: 

Projected Ohio High School Football Division Breakdown 2013-14

This is based off boys enrollment data from October 2012 for Grades 9, 10, 11.  Here’s a look at the potential teams that could be in each division in 2013:

Division I

 Division II

Division III

Division IV 

Division V

Division VI 

 Division VII 

Explanation

• Berea and Midpark are combining into one high school. I have added their enrollment numbers together and added them into Division I. This also means that there are 720 teams total. 72 (top 10%) will be in DI, while DII-DVII will have about 108 teams each.
• Division II-III will have 108 teams easily. Division IV-VII are very tricky because there are a lot of “border” teams that have the same number of students. There are two scenarios that could play out for the number of teams in each division due to the ties in enrollment:
• Scenario A: DIV (109), DV (109), DVI (108), DVII (106)
• Scenario B: DIV (107), DV (108), DVI (109), DVII (108)
• The argument for scenario A would be to put as many teams in the higher divisions when needed and let the smallest division have the least amount of teams. The argument for Scenario B is that no team would have more or less than one off from the targeted 108 division enrollment. For this reason, I chose Scenario B for this post.