Louisville Leopards Football Week 4 Playoff Picture

Louisville 5.7500 (9th out of 27)

We are now three weeks into the season and its time to take a look at the DIII, Region 9 playoff picture for the first time. The Louisville Leopards earned a 49-34 victory over the Green Bulldogs (who reside in Division II, Region 6) this past week to improve to 2-1 on the season. The victory propelled them into the #9 spot in the Region 9 standings just outside of the top 8 that qualify for the postseason with lots of season left to play.

DIII, Region 9 Playoff Picture

Breaking down the standings a little more, all eight teams in playoff position are an undefeated 3-0 on the young season. The Leopards have the most Harbin Points of any non-undefeated team and are slightly ahead of 10th place Kenston who is also 3-0. Seven of the 27 teams sit at 2-1 on the year. Louisville is also ahead of the Canfield Cardinals, despite falling to them 24-21 in Week 1. The Cardinals fell at home to Dover 33-30 in Week 2 and now currently sit in 11th. Eight other teams are 1-2, while there remains three winless teams in Region 9 who’s playoff chances are fading fast (if not already gone).

Leopards Playoff Projections, Chances, and Rankings

Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 currently gives the Leopards a 33% chance to make the postseason with an 11% chance of hosting a playoff game in the Regional Semifinals. Louisville is currently projected to go 6-4 on the season, earn 17.17 Harbin Points, and finish 12th in the Region according to the site. However, it is important to note that the Leopards were projected to only go 5-5 at the beginning of the season according to Drew Pasteur.

Every game is critical because Louisville’s playoff chances boom from 9% if they obtain 6 victories to 57% if they reach 7 wins. If they finish the season 8-2 they’ll have a 97% chance of making he postseason and a 54% chance of hosting a playoff game. The Leopards very much control their own destiny at this point because 9-1 leaves them with a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 97% chance of hosting a playoff game.

This is in large part because Louisville has the 5th toughest schedule out of 107 teams in Division III. There are plenty of Harbin Points on the line to be won by the Leopards in their 7 remaining games.

While Louisville may currently be one spot outside of the playoff picture in terms of the computer rankings, they are still ranked as the 14th best team in Division III and 6th best team in Region 9. They are also ranked the 74th best team in the State out of 713 total schools.

Louisville at Lake Matchup and Projections

According to Fantastic 50’s projections, the Leopards are a 4 point underdog with a 41% chance to win going on the road against the Lake Blue Streaks this week.

Fantastic 50’s predictions have been close in accuracy in 2 of the past 3 weeks. They predicted Louisville would fall at home to Canfield by 3 and they did 24-21. They also predicted the Leopards would win at Green by 13 points and they won by 15. The only projection that was not accurate was Louisville’s 43-36 victory over North Canton Hoover in Week 2. Drew Pasteur’s projection had the Vikings winning by 8 points, but nearly the opposite happened with the Leps taking the rivalry by a touchdown. Two onside kicks and the endless will of the Leopards took care of that projection. Will they prove the computer wrong again Friday at Lake?

Louisville Leopards and Lake Blue Streaks Football Schedule and Results

Louisville Vs. Lake Series History

Quarterback Colton Jones broke his own school record by passing for 502 yards in a 41-28 home win over the 3-0 Blue Streaks in 2018. Last year’s game reignited the series between the two schools after an 11 year absence. Louisville trails the all-time series 4-8, which includes a 1-2 record in game’s played at Lake.

The Leopards only victory on the road against the Blue Streaks came in a thrilling 12-6 double overtime win on October 20, 1989. Mark Sanders caught a 64 yard game-tying touchdown pass from Joe Greco with just 15 seconds left in the contest. Lake had shutout the opposition in 23 straight quarters prior to that score that likely doubled Louisville’s offensive yardage for the night. Rob Arnold would also find Mark Sanders for the game winning touchdown in double overtime on 4th-and-17.

Louisville fell in their only other two trips to Lake. The Leopards lost to the Blue Streaks 14-6 in 1986 and 31-18 in their most recent series game played in Uniontown on September 1, 2006.

There’s a lot at stake on the line Friday for Louisville. If the Leopards pull off the upset their chances of making the playoffs increase to 61%. However, a loss would drop their chances of making the postseason to just 13%. For the Blue Streaks a win would increase their odds to make the playoffs to 75%, while a loss drops that probability to just 36%.

Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 74th in the state overall and 14th in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 74th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 14th (Out of 107)
Region 9 Ranking: 6th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Division III Ranking: 5th toughest (Out of 107)

Projections

Projected Record: 6-4
Projected Harbin Points: 17.17
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 12th (Out of Playoffs)

Win Probabilities

4 Wins: 9%
5 Wins: 19%
6 Wins: 28%
7 Wins: 25%
8 Wins: 15%

Playoff Probabilities

Playoff chance
33% now (bubble if 7-3), 11% chance of home playoff game
61% with a win at Lake, and 13% with a loss at Lake

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 13.83 (8.62-20.16) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 17.17 (10.72-24.01) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 21.16 (14.98-29.57) 57% in, 6% home, proj. #8 (#1-out)
8W: 25.74 (19.65-33.21) 97% in, 54% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 31.23 (25.62-36.85) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
12% WWWWWLW 25.58 pts, 97% in, 51% home (#4, range #1-out) Dover 11%

Worst realistic scenario
3.0% LLWLWLL 10.24 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% LLWWWLW 16.03 pts, 3% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 29%
9.3% LWWWWLW 20.70 pts, 50% in, 3% home (#8, range #2-out) Dover 20%
8.4% WLWWWLW 20.65 pts, 48% in, 3% home (out, range #3-out) Dover 20%
8.0% LLWLWLW 13.01 pts, out
4.7% LWWLWLW 17.42 pts, 7% in (out, range #5-out) Dover 31%
4.1% WLWLWLW 17.65 pts, 7% in (out, range #5-out) Dover 33%
(39% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: North Canton Hoover (2-1 D2 R5) over Uniontown Lake (3-0 D2 R5)
Week 10: North Canton Hoover (2-1 D2 R5) over Massillon Jackson (2-1 D1 R1)
Week 6: North Canton Hoover (2-1 D2 R5) over Massillon Perry (3-0 D2 R5)
Week 8: Warren Howland (1-2 D3 R9) over Youngstown Chaney (2-1 D3 R9)
Week 9: North Canton Hoover (2-1 D2 R5) over Akron St Vincent-St Mary (2-1 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round opponents
14% Dover (3-0)
14% Steubenville (3-0)
12% New Philadelphia (3-0)
9% Chagrin Falls Kenston (3-0)
9% Aurora (3-0)

Championship Probabilities
3.8% Region 9 champ
1.4% Division 3 state champ

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
W3: 125.4 (2-1, #74, D3 #14) 33% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. 6-4, out
W2: 124.4 (1-1, #76, D3 #12) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. 6-4, out
W1: 120.4 (0-1, #101, D3 #17) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. 5-5, out
W0: 121.8 (0-0, #93, D3 #15) 31% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home, proj. 5-5, out
Last year 125.4 (6-4)

DIII, Region 9 Harbin Computer Rankings After Week 3

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