Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 9
Louisville 16.0000 (8th out of 27)
The DIII, Region 9 Playoff Pictures is becoming more clear, but several questions are still left to be answered. One of those questions is whether or not the Leopards will be able to sneak into the postseason when the dust clears at the end of Week 10. If the season ended today, 6-3 Louisville would take the 8th and final seed in the Region and would be traveling to face rival Marlington in the Round 1.
The Leopards are 21-point home favorites this week when the host Canton South. However, Louisville does not control their own destiny. In fact, Fantastic50.net is projected them as a bubble team that finishes 9th in the Region, missing the playoffs in the process. They are currently given a 42% chance to advance to Week 11 and that probability can increase to as much as 44% if they take care of business against the Wildcats in the regular season finale.
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If the cards fall right Louisville can get as high as the fifth seed. The best most likely scenario puts them in as the eight seed with a 79% chance of their first round opponent being Marlington. Other possible opponents include Akron Hoban (12% chance) and New Philadelphia (9% chance).
While there are seemingly endless scenarios that could put the Leopards in or out when you factor in second level points, there is one concrete combination that can put Louisville in the playoffs. If the Leopards defeat Canton South and the Akron East Dragons (6-3) fall in their City Series finale at against the visiting Akron Garfield Golden Rams (3-6), then Louisville makes the postseason no matter what.
The Leopards won on the road at Salem last week 46-27. This along with gaining some second level points from the following wins allowed them to move up from 9th to 8th:
- Alliance 52, at Minerva 49
- Carrollton 20, at Canton South 17
Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 143rd in the state overall and 22nd in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities
Rankings
State Ranking: 143rd (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 22nd (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Overall: 186th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 30th (Out of 108) toughest
Projections
Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 9th (Out of Playoffs)
Win Probabilities
6 Wins: 8%
7 Wins: 92%
Playoff Probabilities
Playoff chance
42% now (bubble if 7-3)
No home game
44% with a win in next game, and 21% with a loss
More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 17.20 (16.65-17.80), 21% in, not home, proj. out (#7-out)
7W: 18.70 (18.15-19.30), 44% in, not home, proj. out (#5-out)
Best realistic scenario
92% win all – 18.70 pts, 44% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 79%)
Worst realistic scenario
8.1% lose all – 17.20 pts, 21% in, range #7-out) (Alliance Marlington 86%)
Most likely other scenarios
Most likely first-round opponents
79% Alliance Marlington (9-0)
12% Akron Hoban (8-1)
9% New Philadelphia (8-1)
Championship Probabilities
Regional champ 1%
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 62% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W7: 118.3 (#141, D3 #21) 63% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W8: 118.3 (#143, D3 #22) 66% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #8
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 9)
Rank | W-L | School | Average | Level 1 | Level 2 | L2 divisor |
1 | 9-0 | Marlington | 24.9111 | 46.0 | 198.0 | 100 |
2 | 8-1 | Archbishop Hoban | 22.5117 | 42.5 | 169.0 | 95 |
3 | 8-1 | New Philadelphia | 21.2111 | 41.5 | 166.0 | 100 |
4 | 8-1 | Buckeye | 20.5944 | 40.0 | 161.5 | 100 |
5 | 7-2 | Howland | 18.2677 | 38.5 | 138.5 | 99 |
6 | 6-3 | Dover | 17.8889 | 31.0 | 143.0 | 99 |
7 | 5-4 | St Vincent-St Mary | 16.4028 | 29.5 | 126.0 | 96 |
8 | 6-3 | Louisville | 16.0000 | 31.5 | 125.0 | 100 |
9 | 6-3 | Akron East | 15.7333 | 34.5 | 119.0 | 100 |
10 | 6-3 | Ravenna | 13.7167 | 33.0 | 100.5 | 100 |
11 | 5-4 | West Geauga | 12.6833 | 25.5 | 98.5 | 100 |
12 | 6-3 | Canfield | 11.6389 | 35.0 | 77.5 | 100 |
13 | 4-5 | Lake Catholic | 11.5758 | 21.0 | 91.5 | 99 |
14 | 5-4 | Springfield | 9.8500 | 27.0 | 68.5 | 100 |
15 | 4-5 | Buchtel | 9.5808 | 23.5 | 69.0 | 99 |
16 | 4-5 | Niles McKinley | 9.5333 | 21.0 | 72.0 | 100 |
17 | 5-4 | Revere | 9.5222 | 29.0 | 63.0 | 100 |
18 | 5-4 | Alliance | 9.1278 | 25.0 | 63.5 | 100 |
19 | 4-5 | Carrollton | 9.0354 | 19.5 | 68.0 | 99 |
20 | 4-5 | Poland Seminary | 7.6389 | 21.5 | 52.5 | 100 |
21 | 4-5 | Norton | 7.0833 | 21.0 | 47.5 | 100 |
22 | 4-5 | Coventry | 6.8778 | 20.5 | 46.0 | 100 |
23 | 2-7 | Tallmadge | 6.3778 | 11.5 | 51.0 | 100 |
24 | 2-7 | Geneva | 4.3278 | 11.5 | 30.5 | 100 |
25 | 2-7 | Kenmore | 3.7020 | 11.5 | 24.0 | 99 |
26 | 1-8 | Harvey | 1.0722 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 100 |
27 | 0-9 | Cloverleaf | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
Range Of Harbin Points After Week 10 Results
School | Playoff Status | max Avg
(win out) |
min Avg
(win out) |
max Avg
(lose out) |
min Avg
(lose out) |
L2 divisor
(final) |
Marlington | clinched home game | 30.4500 | 28.9500 | 27.4000 | 25.9000 | 100 |
Archbishop Hoban | clinched playoff spot | 27.1158 | 25.9579 | 24.8289 | 23.6711 | 95 |
New Philadelphia | clinched playoff spot | 27.8313 | 25.1545 | 24.1500 | 21.4732 | 99 |
Buckeye | clinched playoff spot | 23.9500 | 22.0500 | 23.0000 | 21.1000 | 100 |
Howland | control own destiny | 26.0157 | 24.2985 | 20.6177 | 18.9005 | 99 |
Dover | control own destiny | 24.9126 | 22.8419 | 20.1707 | 18.1000 | 99 |
St Vincent-St Mary | 20.8979 | 18.1375 | 18.8354 | 16.0750 | 96 | |
Louisville | 19.3000 | 18.1500 | 17.8000 | 16.6500 | 100 | |
Akron East | 19.9000 | 18.9000 | 17.5000 | 16.5000 | 100 | |
Ravenna | 17.6000 | 16.4500 | 15.5500 | 14.4000 | 100 | |
West Geauga | 17.0500 | 15.4500 | 14.4500 | 12.8500 | 100 | |
Canfield | 16.7000 | 14.5500 | 14.0000 | 11.8500 | 100 | |
Lake Catholic | mathematically eliminated | 14.6192 | 12.5485 | 13.4131 | 11.3424 | 99 |
Springfield | 16.8000 | 15.3000 | 11.6000 | 10.1000 | 100 | |
Buchtel | mathematically eliminated | 13.3035 | 12.2934 | 10.9359 | 9.9258 | 99 |
Niles McKinley | mathematically eliminated | 12.4500 | 10.5500 | 11.2000 | 9.3000 | 100 |
Revere | mathematically eliminated | 16.1500 | 14.4500 | 11.5000 | 9.8000 | 100 |
Alliance | mathematically eliminated | 16.0000 | 14.5000 | 10.8500 | 9.3500 | 100 |
Carrollton | mathematically eliminated | 11.3389 | 9.3187 | 10.8389 | 8.8187 | 99 |
Poland Seminary | mathematically eliminated | 12.9500 | 11.9500 | 8.9000 | 7.9000 | 100 |
Norton | mathematically eliminated | 11.0000 | 9.9500 | 8.4000 | 7.3500 | 100 |
Coventry | mathematically eliminated | 10.9500 | 9.8000 | 8.3000 | 7.1500 | 100 |
Tallmadge | mathematically eliminated | 12.4500 | 11.4000 | 7.3000 | 6.2500 | 100 |
Geneva | mathematically eliminated | 9.3000 | 8.2000 | 5.3000 | 4.2000 | 100 |
Kenmore | mathematically eliminated | 7.9021 | 6.9125 | 4.6396 | 3.6500 | 96 |
Harvey | mathematically eliminated | 6.9500 | 6.3500 | 1.6000 | 1.0000 | 100 |
Cloverleaf | mathematically eliminated | 2.5500 | 2.5500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 100 |