Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 8
Louisville 12.3125 (9th out of 27)
With their dominating 49-0 win at Carrollton this past week, the 5-3 Louisville Leopards moved up a spot to 9th place in the DIII, Region 9 Computer Rankings. Louisville still sits one spot outside of the playoff picture heading into Week 9, but still has an 86% chance of making the postseason if they win out and finish 7-3. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
According to Fantastic50.net, Louisville currently has a 66% chance to make the playoffs and that probability can increase to 82% with a win at Salem on Friday. The Quakers are on a three game-winning streak and also have a 5-3 record with a 3-2 mark against NBC competition. Drew Pasteur has Louisville as a 14 point favorite on the road at Salem. The Leopards have covered his spread in each of their past 5 games. Louisville was a 14-point favorite at Carrollton last week as well, but ended up blowing out the Warriors 49-0.
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If the Leopards make the playoffs, things are setting up nicely for a date with some familar foes in Week 11. The Undefeated Dukes currently sit in 1st place in Region 9 and have a 44% chance to host the Leopards in the Regional Quarterfinals. Louisville also has a 30% chance to play the current 2nd seed Akron Archbishop Hoban (7-1) and an 18% chance to hit the road for New Philadelphia (7-1) for their first meeting with the Quakers since their 2004 playoff game.
Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 143rd in the state overall and 22nd in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities
Rankings
State Ranking: 143rd (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 22nd (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Overall: 176th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 24th (Out of 108) toughest
Projections
Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.80
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 8th Seed
Win Probabilities
5 Wins: 2%
6 Wins: 26%
7 Wins: 72%
Playoff Probabilities
Playoff chance
66% now (need 7-3)
1% chance of a home game
82% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss
More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: no playoff berth
6W: 16.15 (14.65-18.85), 17% in, not home, proj. out (#6-out)
7W: 18.80 (18.15-20.50), 86% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
Best realistic scenario
72% win all – 18.80 pts, 86% in (#7, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 43%)
Worst realistic scenario
2.0% lose all – 13.75 pts, Out
Most likely other scenarios
18% LW – 15.75 pts, 3% in, range #7-out) (Akron Hoban 43%)
7.9% WL – 17.25 pts, 49% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 67%)
Most likely first-round opponents
44% Alliance Marlington (8-0)
30% Akron Hoban (7-1)
18% New Philadelphia (7-1)
4% Medina Buckeye (7-1)
2% Dover (5-3)
2% some other opponent
Championship Probabilities
Regional champ 1%
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 62% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W7: 118.3 (#141, D3 #21) 63% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W8: 118.3 (#143, D3 #22) 66% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #8
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 7)
Rank |
W-L |
ID # |
City |
School |
Average |
Level 1 |
Level 2 |
L2 divisor |
Playoff Status (unofficial) |
max Avg (win out) |
min Avg (win out) |
max Avg (lose out) |
min Avg (lose out) |
L2 divisor (final) |
1 |
8-0 |
964 |
Alliance |
21.0250 |
41.0 |
159.0 |
100 |
control own destiny |
31.1000 |
28.1000 |
26.0000 |
22.0000 |
100 |
|
2 |
7-1 |
724 |
Akron |
18.5296 |
37.5 |
131.5 |
95 |
control own destiny |
29.2737 |
25.9053 |
23.6447 |
19.2763 |
95 |
|
3 |
7-1 |
1106 |
New Philadelphia |
16.7625 |
36.5 |
122.0 |
100 |
control own destiny |
30.1000 |
23.7500 |
22.8000 |
16.4000 |
100 |
|
4 |
7-1 |
276 |
Medina |
16.1750 |
35.0 |
118.0 |
100 |
|
25.3000 |
21.5000 |
20.9500 |
16.2000 |
100 |
|
5 |
5-3 |
1384 |
Akron |
15.1458 |
29.5 |
110.0 |
96 |
|
27.5917 |
20.7688 |
20.0333 |
14.4083 |
96 |
|
6 |
5-3 |
472 |
Dover |
13.5410 |
25.5 |
102.5 |
99 |
|
25.5187 |
21.3773 |
18.1056 |
12.9035 |
99 |
|
7 |
6-2 |
736 |
Warren |
13.0139 |
33.0 |
88.0 |
99 |
control own destiny |
26.5207 |
23.2379 |
17.6434 |
13.1990 |
99 |
|
8 |
5-3 |
1678 |
Chesterland |
12.5875 |
25.5 |
94.0 |
100 |
|
22.9500 |
20.7500 |
16.0500 |
12.8500 |
100 |
|
9 |
5-3 |
902 |
Louisville |
12.3125 |
26.5 |
90.0 |
100 |
|
20.5000 |
18.1500 |
15.9500 |
12.6500 |
100 |
|
10 |
5-3 |
478 |
Akron |
11.4250 |
29.0 |
78.0 |
100 |
|
20.3500 |
18.3000 |
14.5500 |
12.4500 |
100 |
|
11 |
6-2 |
304 |
Canfield |
11.1250 |
35.0 |
67.5 |
100 |
|
24.0000 |
17.4000 |
16.3500 |
10.8500 |
100 |
|
12 |
5-3 |
1281 |
Ravenna |
10.9500 |
28.0 |
74.5 |
100 |
|
18.7000 |
16.4000 |
14.5500 |
11.3500 |
100 |
|
13 |
4-4 |
274 |
Akron |
8.6951 |
23.5 |
57.0 |
99 |
|
17.2879 |
16.2778 |
11.3904 |
9.2692 |
99 |
|
14 |
4-4 |
112 |
Alliance |
8.3500 |
20.0 |
58.5 |
100 |
|
16.5000 |
14.5000 |
11.3000 |
8.3500 |
100 |
|
15 |
3-5 |
322 |
Carrollton |
7.6711 |
14.5 |
58.0 |
99 |
|
13.3086 |
9.3187 |
10.1874 |
7.3086 |
99 |
|
16 |
4-4 |
1288 |
Richfield |
7.5875 |
23.5 |
46.5 |
100 |
|
17.9000 |
13.3500 |
10.9500 |
7.6000 |
100 |
|
17 |
4-4 |
1264 |
Poland |
7.4375 |
21.5 |
47.5 |
100 |
|
18.3500 |
16.0500 |
10.0500 |
7.9000 |
100 |
|
18 |
3-5 |
994 |
Niles |
6.7500 |
16.0 |
47.5 |
100 |
|
13.5000 |
10.5500 |
9.3500 |
6.3500 |
100 |
|
19 |
3-5 |
824 |
Mentor |
6.6345 |
15.5 |
46.5 |
99 |
|
14.6192 |
11.4374 |
9.4793 |
6.2470 |
99 |
|
20 |
4-4 |
428 |
Akron |
6.6125 |
20.5 |
40.5 |
100 |
|
15.7500 |
12.4500 |
9.4000 |
7.1000 |
100 |
|
21 |
4-4 |
1472 |
Akron |
6.3375 |
21.5 |
36.5 |
100 |
|
16.8000 |
14.6000 |
9.5000 |
6.3000 |
100 |
|
22 |
4-4 |
1158 |
Norton |
6.2250 |
21.0 |
36.0 |
100 |
|
17.3000 |
13.9500 |
8.9500 |
6.7000 |
100 |
|
23 |
2-6 |
1522 |
Tallmadge |
6.0375 |
11.5 |
46.0 |
100 |
|
16.4000 |
13.4500 |
7.7500 |
5.7500 |
100 |
|
24 |
2-6 |
634 |
Geneva |
3.8875 |
11.5 |
24.5 |
100 |
|
12.9500 |
9.8000 |
5.8500 |
3.6000 |
100 |
|
25 |
1-7 |
800 |
Akron |
3.1622 |
5.5 |
24.5 |
99 |
mathematically eliminated |
8.5271 |
6.4958 |
4.0396 |
3.1021 |
96 |
|
26 |
1-7 |
698 |
Painesville |
1.1625 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
10.1500 |
7.8500 |
2.2000 |
1.0000 |
100 |
|
27 |
0-8 |
390 |
Lodi |
0.0000 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
5.1500 |
4.0500 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
100 |