Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 7
Louisville 9.45900 (10th out of 27)
With their 44-20 victory over the West Branch Warriors this past week, the 4-3 Louisville Leopards maintained their 10th place spot in the DIII, Region 9 Computer Rankings. However, with only 8 teams qualifying the Leopards are still on the outside of the postseason picture. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
According to Fantastic50.net, Louisville currently has a 63% chance to make the playoffs and that probability can increase to 74% with a win over host Carrollton on Friday. The Warriors are currently winless in league play, but a Leopard loss would shrink Louisville’s playoffs chances to only 15%. Every game is critical from here on out for Louisville as they make a push for Week 11. The Leopards have covered Drew Pasteur’s spread in each of their past 4 games and are 14-point road favorites for Week 8.
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If Louisville makes the playoffs they will almost certainly be on the road in Week 11 as they have just a 1% chance of a home game at this point in the season. There most likely opponent is the 6-1 Akron Archbishop Hoban. The Leopards have a 32% chance to play the Knights in round one, a 29% chance to rematch at Marlington (7-0), and a 21% chance to travel to New Philadelphia (6-1) to take on the Quakers.
Louisville does not control their own destiny, but has a 91% chance to make the postseason if they win out. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 141st in the state overall and 21st in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities
Rankings
State Ranking: 141st (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 21st (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Overall: 157th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 25th (Out of 108) toughest
Projections
Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 6th Seed
Win Probabilities
5 Wins: 6%
6 Wins: 33%
7 Wins: 60%
Playoff Probabilities
Playoff chance
63% now (need 7-3)
1% chance of a home game
74% with a win in next game, and 15% with a loss
More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: no playoff berth
6W: 16.20 (14.05-18.90), 25% in, not home, proj. out (#5-out)
7W: 18.70 (17.50-20.40), 91% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
Best realistic scenario
60% win all – 18.70 pts, 91% in and 2% home (#7, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 32%)
Worst realistic scenario
0.4% lose all – 11.20 pts, Out
Most likely other scenarios
13% LWW – 16.20 pts, 21% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 63%)
12% WLW – 15.80 pts, 17% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 64%)
8.5% WWL – 16.70 pts, 44% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 50%)
2.9% LLW – 13.25 pts, Out
1.8% LWL – 14.15 pts, Out
1.2% WLL – 13.75 pts, Out
Most likely first-round opponents
32% Akron Hoban (6-1)
29% Alliance Marlington (7-0)
21% New Philadelphia (6-1)
6% Dover (4-3)
4% Medina Buckeye (6-1)
8% some other opponent
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 62% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W7: 118.3 (#141, D3 #21) 63% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 7)
Rank |
W-L |
ID # |
City |
School |
Average |
Level 1 |
Level 2 |
L2 divisor |
1 |
7-0 |
964 |
Alliance |
Marlington |
18.9929 |
36.0 |
138.5 |
100 |
2 |
6-1 |
724 |
Akron |
Archbishop Hoban |
16.3229 |
31.5 |
113.5 |
96 |
3 |
6-1 |
1106 |
New Philadelphia |
New Philadelphia |
12.3286 |
31.0 |
79.0 |
100 |
4 |
5-2 |
736 |
Warren |
Howland |
11.2013 |
27.5 |
72.0 |
99 |
5 |
6-1 |
276 |
Medina |
Buckeye |
11.1357 |
30.0 |
68.5 |
100 |
6 |
4-3 |
478 |
Akron |
East |
10.5857 |
23.0 |
73.0 |
100 |
7 |
4-3 |
1384 |
Akron |
St Vincent-St Mary |
10.5774 |
23.0 |
70.0 |
96 |
8 |
5-2 |
304 |
Canfield |
Canfield |
9.9429 |
29.0 |
58.0 |
100 |
9 |
4-3 |
1281 |
Ravenna |
Ravenna |
9.6643 |
22.5 |
64.5 |
100 |
10 |
4-3 |
902 |
Louisville |
Louisville |
9.4500 |
21.0 |
64.5 |
100 |
11 |
4-3 |
472 |
Dover |
Dover |
9.3000 |
21.0 |
63.0 |
100 |
12 |
4-3 |
112 |
Alliance |
Alliance |
8.2071 |
20.0 |
53.5 |
100 |
13 |
4-3 |
1678 |
Chesterland |
West Geauga |
8.2000 |
21.0 |
52.0 |
100 |
14 |
4-3 |
1288 |
Richfield |
Revere |
7.5071 |
23.5 |
41.5 |
100 |
15 |
4-3 |
1264 |
Poland |
Poland Seminary |
7.0214 |
21.5 |
39.5 |
100 |
16 |
4-3 |
428 |
Akron |
Coventry |
6.9786 |
20.5 |
40.5 |
100 |
17 |
3-4 |
322 |
Carrollton |
Carrollton |
6.9704 |
14.5 |
48.5 |
99 |
18 |
3-4 |
824 |
Mentor |
Lake Catholic |
6.3052 |
15.5 |
40.5 |
99 |
19 |
3-4 |
994 |
Niles |
Niles McKinley |
6.1357 |
16.0 |
38.5 |
100 |
20 |
2-5 |
1522 |
Tallmadge |
Tallmadge |
5.1429 |
11.5 |
35.0 |
100 |
21 |
3-4 |
1472 |
Akron |
Springfield |
4.5071 |
16.5 |
21.5 |
100 |
22 |
3-4 |
274 |
Akron |
Buchtel |
4.3182 |
17.5 |
18.0 |
99 |
23 |
3-4 |
1158 |
Norton |
Norton |
3.8357 |
16.0 |
15.5 |
100 |
24 |
2-5 |
634 |
Geneva |
Geneva |
3.4929 |
11.5 |
18.5 |
100 |
25 |
1-6 |
800 |
Akron |
Kenmore |
2.0483 |
5.5 |
12.5 |
99 |
26 |
1-6 |
698 |
Painesville |
Harvey |
1.2786 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
100 |
27 |
0-7 |
390 |
Lodi |
Cloverleaf |
0.0000 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100 |