Louisville Leopards 2015 Football Playoff Picture After Week 8

By Leopard Nation · Published October 19, 2015 · Updated October 19, 2015

Louisville Leopards Football 2015 Win Over Marlington Dukes

Louisville 16.9625

With their 40-7 win over Carrollton Friday, the Leopards moved from 6th to 5th place in the Division III, Region 7 Playoff Rankings.

Louisville received second level points from the following opponents victories this week:

Canfield 18, Youngstown East 12
Marlington 47, Minerva 10
West Branch 21, Canton South 10

If the season ended today, the Leopards would be traveling to the current fourth seed Medina Buckeye (8-0) for the opening round of the playoffs. Akron Archbishop Hoban still holds the top seed in DIII, Region 7. According to Joe Eitel, Louisville controls their own destiny. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Louisville currently has a 99% chance to make the postseason. The Leopards have an 83% chance of defeating Salem Friday night and are favored by 15 at home. According to Drew Pasteur, a victory over the Quakers would put Louisville in the playoffs.

The Leopards still have a chance of hosting a first round playoff game. Currently they have a 32% chance of hosting a home playoff game (down from 48% last week) and a 41% chance of an opening round home game if they win out. However, if Louisville loses just one game out of the last two then their chances of hosting an opening round playoff game fall to just 2%.

In the first round the Leopards have the greatest chance to play undefeated Medina Buckeye. Fantastic 50 gives this scenario a 49% chance of happening. Other likely first round opponents include Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary (7-1) 30%, Poland (8-0) 9%, and West Geauga (7-1) 6%,. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 83rd in the state overall and 10th in Division III.

Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 83rd (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 10th (Out of 108)
Region 7 Ranking: 5th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Strength of schedule – 0.654
State: 205th Toughest (Out of 720)
DIII Comparison: 39th Toughest (Out of 108)

Projections

Projected Record: 9-1
Projected Harbin Points: 25.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 5th Seed

Win Probabilities

7 Wins: 1%
8 Wins: 22%
9 Wins: 77%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: 99%
Chance of a Home Game: 32%

Playoff Chance with win Over Salem: 100%
Playoff Chance with loss to Salem: 97%

Playoff Chance By Win Scenarios
7W: 19.15 (18.05-20.90), 60% in, not home, proj. #8 (#5-out)
8W: 21.25 (20.10-25.90), 99% in, 2% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
9W: 25.70 (25.05-27.65), 100% in, 41% home, proj. #5 (#1-#6)

Best Realistic Scenario
77% win all – 25.70 pts, In and 41% home (#5, range #1-#6) (Medina Buckeye 52%)

Worst Realistic Scenario
1.1% lose all – 19.15 pts, 60% in (#8, range #5-out) (Akron Hoban 46%)

Most Likely Other Scenarios
16% LW – 20.80 pts, 99% in and 1% home (#6, range #4-out) (Medina Buckeye 35%)
5.6% WL – 24.05 pts, In and 8% home (#5, range #3-#7) (Medina Buckeye 47%)

Most Likely First-round Opponents
49% Medina Buckeye (8-0)
30% Akron SVSM (7-1)
9% Poland (8-0)
6% West Geauga (7-1)
2% Akron Hoban (8-0)
4% some other opponent

Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summary
Pre: 121.6 (#106, D3 #20) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 38% H, proj. #4
W1: 125.0 (#76, D3 #12) 88% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #3
W2: 128.1 (#61, D3 #9) 96% (need 7-3), 70% H, proj. #2
W3: 126.2 (#75, D3 #12) 92% (need 7-3), 52% H, proj. #6
W4: 123.1 (#95, D3 #15) 90% (need 7-3), 34% H, proj. #6
W5: 123.4 (#93, D3 #13) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 38% H, proj. #5
W6: 124.4 (#85, D3 #11) 95% (bubble if 7-3), 27% H, proj. #5

Championship Probabilities
Regional Championship: 2%