Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 9

Louisville 23.1722 (2nd)

With their 56-14 victory over the Alliance Aviators Friday and some help in second level points the Beatty's Sports Nothing is Given Shirt Full Size AdLouisville Leopards have qualified for the OHSAA playoffs in DIII, Region 7. The Leopards moved from 3rd place to 2nd place in the region and if the season ended today they would host the Poland Seminary Bulldogs in the Regional Quarterfinals. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Fantastic 50 claims that Louisville has already clinched a home playoff game. This is not yet mathematically true through Joe Eitel’s maximum and minimum Harbin Points, but his site does not factor second level team’s playing each other Week 10 while Fantastic 50 does. This is explained by Drew Pasteur on the Fantastic 50 website:

“This is completely correct logically, but sometimes the shown maximum/minimum points listed aren’t actually possible.  For a contending team to end up with that number of Harbin points, it might require two teams that play one another to both win (or both lose). On the other hand, I simulate all remaining regular-season games many times, and compute the final Harbin standings for each simulation.  If a team makes the playoffs in every simulation (of at least 10,000 sims), then I show them as having clinched.”

As a result it looks almost certain the Leopards will have a home first round playoff game regardless of what happens this week.  Their most likely opponents include Tallmadge (43%), Poland Seminary (34%), Chardon (14%), and Kenston (9%). According to these calculations, this amazingly leaves Louisville with no chance of playing the following AP Poll ranked teams Hubbard (1st), Aurora (3rd), and defending State Champion St. Vincent-St. Mary (12th) in the opening round. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 65th in the state overall and 12th in Division III:

Leopards Statistical Probabilities

#65 Louisville (8-1) 130.4
Ranked #12 of 105 in Division III, #4 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.674, #203 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.549, #45 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 99% outright, 100% at least a share
Harbin projections (ranges): 8W-24.85(24.25-25.40) 9W-25.95(25.35-26.50) 
Home game probabilities: 8W-100% 9W-100%
Seed projections (ranges): 8W-#4 (#2-#4) 9W-#3 (#2-#4) 
Projected 25.95 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #4 seed (best #2, worst #4) 
Clinched playoff berth and home game
1st round opponents: Tallmadge 43%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 34%, Chardon 14%, Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 9%

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 8)

OHSAA DIII, Region 7 Computer Rankings 2014 After Week 9

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