Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 8
Louisville 18.2750 (3rd)
If the season ended right now the 7-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. With their 54-14 win over Marlington Friday and other second level help the Leopards moved from the 6th to 3rd spot in DIII, Region 7. If the season ended today they would host the Chardon Hilltoppers in the Regional Quarterfinals. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Fantastic 50 claims that Louisville has already clinched a playoff birth, while this is 99% likely it is not a sure thing yet. If the Leopards defeat the Aviators Friday, then there will be very few scenarios (if any) where Louisville could miss the postseason. If they win out they will have an 99% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability shrinks to 74%. Chardon is the most likely first round opponent for the Leopards with a 32% chance of happening. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 64th in the state overall and 12th in Division III:
Leopards Statistical Probabilities
#64 Louisville (7-1) 130.3
Ranked #12 of 105 in Division III, #4 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.690, #191 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.569, #37 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 98% outright, 99% at least a share
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 8W-4% 9W-96%
Harbin projections (ranges): 8W-23.20(21.55-25.40) 9W-25.90(24.25-26.50)
Home game probabilities: 8W-74% 9W-99%
Seed projections (ranges): 8W-#4 (#2-#7) 9W-#3 (#2-#5)
Projected 25.90 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #3 seed (best #2, worst #7)
Clinched playoff berth, 99% chance of a home game
1st round opponents: Chardon 32%, Tallmadge 29%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 26%, St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 7%, Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 5%
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 8)
Rank |
City |
School |
Average |
Level 1 |
Level 2 |
L2 divisor |
Playoff Status (unofficial) |
|
IN THE PLAYOFFS | ||||||||
1 |
Hubbard |
23.5500 |
42.0 |
183.0 |
100 |
control own destiny |
||
2 |
Aurora |
19.9000 |
42.0 |
146.5 |
100 |
control own destiny |
||
3 |
Louisville |
18.2750 |
37.0 |
136.5 |
100 |
. |
||
4 |
Tallmadge |
17.5375 |
29.5 |
138.5 |
100 |
. |
||
5 |
Akron |
16.6503 |
33.0 |
124.0 |
99 |
. |
||
6 |
Chardon |
16.1500 |
34.0 |
119.0 |
100 |
. |
||
7 |
Poland |
14.8375 |
37.5 |
101.5 |
100 |
. |
||
8 |
Chagrin Falls |
13.3250 |
31.0 |
94.5 |
100 |
. |
||
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS | ||||||||
9 |
Richfield |
12.9750 |
29.0 |
93.5 |
100 |
. |
||
10 |
Warren |
12.9625 |
34.5 |
86.5 |
100 |
. |
||
11 |
Akron |
10.3750 |
23.0 |
73.5 |
98 |
. |
||
12 |
Akron |
10.0125 |
34.5 |
57.0 |
100 |
. |
||
13 |
Chesterland |
9.3750 |
21.0 |
67.5 |
100 |
. |
||
14 |
Ravenna |
9.2500 |
22.0 |
65.0 |
100 |
. |
||
15 |
Canfield |
8.2250 |
23.0 |
53.5 |
100 |
. |
||
16 |
Alliance |
7.8875 |
21.5 |
52.0 |
100 |
. |
||
17 |
Alliance |
7.6625 |
20.5 |
51.0 |
100 |
. |
||
18 |
Akron |
6.8125 |
22.5 |
40.0 |
100 |
. |
||
19 |
Akron |
5.5250 |
17.0 |
34.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
20 |
Geneva |
4.9000 |
16.0 |
29.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
21 |
Akron |
4.4250 |
17.0 |
23.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
22 |
Akron |
4.2750 |
17.0 |
21.5 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
23 |
Akron |
3.4375 |
11.5 |
20.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
24 |
Canton |
2.8375 |
5.5 |
21.5 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
25 |
Niles |
2.7250 |
5.0 |
21.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
26 |
Akron |
1.8375 |
11.5 |
4.0 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
||
27 |
Norton |
1.3500 |
4.0 |
8.5 |
100 |
mathematically eliminated |
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