Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 5
Louisville 9.4500 (4th)
If the season ended right now the 4-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. As the 4th seed in the Region they would host the Warren Howland Tigers in the first round. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. They have a 99% of qualifying for the postseason and control their destiny. If they win out they will have a 94% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability falls to just 45%. Chardon is the most likely first round opponent for Louisville as that scenario has a 25% chance of happening at this point. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 77th in the state overall and 15th in Division III:
Leopards Statistical Probabilities
#77 Louisville (4-1) 128.3 Ranked #15 of 105 in Division III, #6 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.716, #165 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.606, #35 toughest (of 105)
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 7W-4% 8W-31% 9W-65%
Harbin projections (ranges): 6W-17.30(14.85-19.55) 7W-20.05(17.75-23.30) 8W-22.65(19.80-26.35) 9W-25.70(23.50-27.50)
Playoff probabilities: 6W-36% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100%
Home game probabilities: 7W-10% 8W-45% 9W-94%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#6 (#3-#out) 8W-#5 (#2-#out) 9W-#4 (#2-#6)
Projected 25.70 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #4 seed (best #2, worst out)
Playoff chance 99% (control own destiny), 75% chance of a home game
Playoff chance 99% with a win this week, and 97% with a loss
1st round opponents: Chardon 25%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 23%, St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 13%, Aurora 10%, Howland (Warren) 9%
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 4)
IN THE PLAYOFFS | ||||||||
Rank | W-L | ID # | City | School | Average | Level 1 | Level 2 | L2 divisor |
1 | 5-0 | 1522 | Tallmadge | Tallmadge | 14.7000 | 29.5 | 88.0 | 100 |
2 | 5-0 | 738 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 13.0500 | 25.5 | 79.5 | 100 |
3 | 5-0 | 146 | Aurora | Aurora | 10.9000 | 27.0 | 55.0 | 100 |
4 | 4-1 | 902 | Louisville | Louisville | 9.4500 | 21.5 | 51.5 | 100 |
5 | 4-1 | 736 | Warren | Howland | 8.0500 | 22.0 | 36.5 | 100 |
6 | 4-1 | 360 | Chardon | Chardon | 7.6500 | 22.5 | 31.5 | 100 |
7 | 3-2 | 1384 | Akron | St Vincent-St Mary | 7.4500 | 16.5 | 41.5 | 100 |
8 | 3-2 | 1678 | Chesterland | West Geauga | 7.4000 | 16.0 | 42.0 | 100 |
– | 4-1 | 1264 | Poland | Poland Seminary | 7.4000 | 21.5 | 31.0 | 100 |
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS | ||||||||
10 | 4-1 | 1288 | Richfield | Revere | 7.3000 | 23.5 | 26.0 | 100 |
11 | 3-2 | 478 | Akron | East | 6.1500 | 16.5 | 28.5 | 100 |
12 | 4-1 | 724 | Akron | Archbishop Hoban | 5.9000 | 23.5 | 12.0 | 100 |
13 | 3-2 | 634 | Geneva | Geneva | 5.7000 | 16.0 | 25.0 | 100 |
14 | 2-3 | 304 | Canfield | Canfield | 5.1000 | 11.5 | 28.0 | 100 |
15 | 2-3 | 1281 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 4.9000 | 11.0 | 27.0 | 100 |
16 | 3-2 | 802 | Chagrin Falls | Kenston | 4.7500 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 100 |
17 | 3-2 | 428 | Akron | Coventry | 4.0500 | 17.0 | 6.5 | 100 |
– | 3-2 | 112 | Alliance | Alliance | 4.0500 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 100 |
19 | 2-3 | 964 | Alliance | Marlington | 3.5500 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 100 |
20 | 2-3 | 1472 | Akron | Springfield | 2.9000 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 100 |
21 | 2-3 | 626 | Akron | Garfield | 2.8500 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 100 |
22 | 1-4 | 994 | Niles | Niles McKinley | 2.0000 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 100 |
23 | 1-4 | 1120 | Akron | North | 1.5500 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 100 |
24 | 1-4 | 274 | Akron | Buchtel | 1.2000 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
25 | 1-4 | 800 | Akron | Kenmore | 1.1000 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 100 |
26 | 0-5 | 1432 | Canton | Canton South | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
– | 0-5 | 1158 | Norton | Norton | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
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