Leopard 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 4
Louisville 5.9000 (8th Place)
If the season ended right now the 3-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. They would be on the road though as a #8 seed taking on current top seeded Tallmadge. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. They have a 97% of qualifying for the postseason and a 100% chance of making it in if they win out. A win this week over Carrollton will increase their playoff chances to 99% verses a loss which lowers those chances to 90%. Poland Seminary is the most likely first round opponent for Louisville as that scenario has a 25% chance of happening at this point. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 87th in the state overall and 15th in Division III:
Leopards Statistical Probabilities
#87 Louisville (3-1) 126.9
Ranked #15 of 105 in Division III, #6 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.720, #166 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.611, #33 toughest (of 105)
Projected record 8-2, win total probabilities 6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-39% 9W-48%
Harbin projections (ranges): 6W-15.83(13.50-20.00) 7W-18.05(14.55-23.25) 8W-21.50(17.30-25.90) 9W-25.10(22.25-27.40)
Playoff probabilities: 6W-33% 7W-82% 8W-99% 9W-100%
Home game probabilities: 7W-1% 8W-17% 9W-74%
Seed projections (ranges): 6W-#out (#5-#out) 7W-#7 (#4-#out) 8W-#5 (#1-#out) 9W-#4 (#1-#7)
Projected 21.50 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #5 seed (best #1, worst out)
Playoff chance 97% (control own destiny), 43% chance of a home game
Playoff chance 99% with a win this week, and 90% with a loss
1st round opponents: Poland Seminary (Poland) 25%, Aurora 20%, Chardon 17%, Tallmadge 10%, Hubbard 10%
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 4)
In the Playoffs | ||||||||
Rank | W-L | ID # | City | School | Average | Level 1 | Level 2 | L2 divisor |
1 | 4-0 | 1522 | Tallmadge | Tallmadge | 10.5250 | 23.5 | 46.5 | 100 |
2 | 4-0 | 738 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 9.4500 | 20.0 | 44.5 | 100 |
3 | 4-0 | 146 | Aurora | Aurora | 8.2000 | 22.0 | 27.0 | 100 |
4 | 4-0 | 1264 | Poland | Poland Seminary | 7.9750 | 21.5 | 26.0 | 100 |
5 | 4-0 | 360 | Chardon | Chardon | 7.7750 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 100 |
6 | 4-0 | 724 | Akron | Archbishop Hoban | 6.4750 | 23.5 | 6.0 | 100 |
7 | 3-1 | 736 | Warren | Howland | 6.0000 | 16.0 | 20.0 | 100 |
8 | 3-1 | 902 | Louisville | Louisville | 5.9000 | 16.0 | 19.0 | 100 |
Out of the Playoffs | ||||||||
9 | 3-1 | 1288 | Richfield | Revere | 5.2000 | 17.0 | 9.5 | 100 |
10 | 2-2 | 478 | Akron | East | 4.4500 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 100 |
11 | 2-2 | 1678 | Chesterland | West Geauga | 4.3500 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 100 |
12 | 2-2 | 634 | Geneva | Geneva | 4.2000 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 100 |
13 | 2-2 | 1384 | Akron | St Vincent-St Mary | 4.0000 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 100 |
14 | 2-2 | 802 | Chagrin Falls | Kenston | 3.7750 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 100 |
15 | 2-2 | 428 | Akron | Coventry | 3.5250 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 100 |
16 | 2-2 | 1472 | Akron | Springfield | 3.4750 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 100 |
17 | 1-3 | 1281 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 2.7500 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 100 |
– | 2-2 | 112 | Alliance | Alliance | 2.7500 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
19 | 1-3 | 304 | Canfield | Canfield | 2.4750 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 100 |
20 | 1-3 | 1120 | Akron | North | 1.8500 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 100 |
21 | 1-3 | 964 | Alliance | Marlington | 1.7000 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 100 |
– | 1-3 | 994 | Niles | Niles McKinley | 1.7000 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 100 |
23 | 1-3 | 626 | Akron | Garfield | 1.5000 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
24 | 1-3 | 800 | Akron | Kenmore | 1.3750 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 100 |
25 | 0-4 | 274 | Akron | Buchtel | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
– | 0-4 | 1432 | Canton | Canton South | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
– | 0-4 | 1158 | Norton | Norton | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
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