Louisville Leopards 2018 Football Probabilities Post Week 2
The Louisville Leopards fell at rival North Canton Hoover 30-14 last Friday in Week 2. With the loss, Louisville is tied for 19th in Division III, Region 9 with nine other winless teams. The bad news is the Leopards are 0-2, but the good news is there are a lot of points left on the board. Below you can see the full breakdown of Harbin Playoff points for each school in Region 9 courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Green at Louisville Game Significance
Louisville will hold their home opener this week against the Green Bulldogs who are also 0-2 on the season. Green lost to two Division II foes to open the season falling to the Ashland Arrows at home 28-26 in Week 1 and then losing on the road against the Riverside Beavers 29-28.
According to Fantastic50.net, Louisville is a 6-point favorite at home this week against Green. The Leopards covered Drew Pasteur’s 14 spread favoring the home Cardinals in Week 1, but were unable to cover the 12 point spread favoring the host Vikings in Week 2. The site also gives Louisville a 63% chance of winning their home opener.
After the loss last week, the Leopards have little room for error according to the simulations run by Fantastic 50. Their chances of making the postseason stand at 1%. If Louisville defeats Green win Week 3, LHS would gain 6.0 1st Level Harbin Points, but no 2nd Level Harbin points because the Bulldogs did not win either of their first two games.
This is the first ever meeting between the two schools. They are the first of five foes on the schedule that the Leopards have never faced in their history.
Win and Playoff Opponent Probabilities
Drew Pasteur predicts the Leopards final record to be 3-7 with a 29% chance. These simulations give Louisville a 28% chance of winning 4 games, and a 15% chance of going .500. The probabilities give the Leopards a 6% chance to have a winning season.
5 victories gives the Leopards a 1% chance to make the postseason and a 6-4 final record gives them a 7% chance of making the postseason.
If the Leopards can qualify, a rematch with Canfield would be the most likely first round scenario. They have a 21% chance of facing the Cardinals, a 15% chance to play Chagrin Falls Kenston, and 11% chance to renew the Battle of Route 44 with Ravenna.
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Louisville Leopards Statistical Probabilities After Week 2
Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 173rd in the State, 29th in Division III, and 13th in Region 9. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Rankings
State Ranking: 173rd
Division III Ranking: 36th (Out of 107)
Region 9 Ranking: 13th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule: 0.941
State Ranking: 20th toughest
Division III Ranking: 3rd (Out of 107) toughest
Region 9 Ranking:1st (Out of 27) toughest
Projections
Projected Record:3-7
Projected Harbin Points:6.6
Projected Region 9 Ranking: Projected Out of Playoffs
Win Probabilities
1 Win: 5%
2 Wins: 17%
3 Wins: 29%
4 Wins: 28%
5 Wins: 15%
Other: 6%
Playoff Probabilities
Chance of Making Playoffs: 1%
Playoff Chance with win Over Green: 1%
Playoff Chance with loss to Green: 1%
Condition Playoff Scenarios
5W: 12.35 (8.00-21.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 16.05 (11.30-23.40) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out
Best Realistic Scenario
2.4% WWLWLWLW 11.50 pts, out
Worst Realistic Scenario
3.6% WLLWLLLL 2.30 pts, out
Most likely other scenarios
6.0% WLLWLWLL 4.70 pts, out
4.3% WLLWLWLW 7.65 pts, out
3.3% LLLWLWLL 3.40 pts, out
3.2% WWLWLWLL 8.45 pts, out
2.7% WLLWWWLL 7.95 pts, out
2.3% LLLWLWLW 6.20 pts, out
(72% some other outcome)
Most Likely 1st Round Playoff Opponent
21% Canfield (2-0)
15% Chagrin Falls Kenston (2-0)
11% Ravenna (2-0)
10% Mentor Lake Catholic (2-0)
6% Akron East (2-0)
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
W2: 114.1 (0-2, #173, D3 #36) 1% , proj. out
W1: 115.6 (0-1, #151, D3 #29) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 116.8 (0-0, #164, D3 #34) 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 114.7 (5-5)
Schedule, Results, and Early Odds/Lines
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-21 A #55 Canfield (2-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-30 A #48 North Canton Hoover (2-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 12 (73%)
Sep 07 (W3) H #229 Uniontown Green (0-2 D2 R7), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) H #104 Uniontown Lake (2-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 21 (W5) A #54 Massillon Perry (2-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 15 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #353 Youngstown Ursuline (0-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 14 (77%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #68 Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (1-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #244 Canfield South Range (1-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #14 Massillon Washington (2-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 24 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #147 Canton Central Catholic (1-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 2)
| Rank | W-L | City | School | Average | Level 1 | Level 2 | Divisor |
| 1 | 2-0 | Richfield | Revere | 6.9000 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 100 |
| 2 | 2-0 | Akron | East | 6.6000 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 100 |
| 3 | 2-0 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 6.1000 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 100 |
| 4 | 2-0 | Chardon | Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin | 6.0500 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 100 |
| 5 | 2-0 | Mentor | Lake Catholic | 6.0000 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 6 | 2-0 | Beloit | West Branch | 5.6000 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 100 |
| 7 | 2-0 | Canfield | Canfield | 5.5000 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 8 | 2-0 | Millersburg | West Holmes | 5.2500 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 100 |
| 9t | 2-0 | Lodi | Cloverleaf | 5.0000 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 9t | 2-0 | Chagrin Falls | Kenston | 5.0000 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 11 | 1-1 | Alliance | Marlington | 3.6000 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 100 |
| 12 | 1-1 | Tallmadge | Tallmadge | 3.5500 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 100 |
| 13 | 1-1 | Medina | Buckeye | 3.2500 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 100 |
| 14 | 1-1 | Chardon | Chardon | 3.1000 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 100 |
| 15t | 1-1 | Akron | Coventry | 3.0000 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 15t | 1-1 | Norton | Norton | 3.0000 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 15t | 1-1 | Akron | St Vincent-St Mary | 3.0000 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 18 | 1-1 | Aurora | Aurora | 2.9500 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Alliance | Alliance | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Geneva | Geneva | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Painesville | Harvey | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Warren | Howland | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Louisville | Louisville | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | New Philadelphia | New Philadelphia | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Niles | Niles McKinley | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Akron | North | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
| 19t | 0-2 | Akron | Springfield | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
Pictures
Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography
View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the Jim & Laura Photography Website
