Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 9


Warning: DOMDocument::loadHTML() [domdocument.loadhtml]: Unexpected end tag : p in Entity, line: 325 in /home/content/11/7118811/html/wp-content/plugins/wpex-auto-link-titles/wpex-auto-link-titles.php on line 38

Warning: DOMDocument::loadHTML() [domdocument.loadhtml]: Unexpected end tag : p in Entity, line: 327 in /home/content/11/7118811/html/wp-content/plugins/wpex-auto-link-titles/wpex-auto-link-titles.php on line 38

Warning: DOMDocument::loadHTML() [domdocument.loadhtml]: Unexpected end tag : p in Entity, line: 329 in /home/content/11/7118811/html/wp-content/plugins/wpex-auto-link-titles/wpex-auto-link-titles.php on line 38

Warning: DOMDocument::loadHTML() [domdocument.loadhtml]: Unexpected end tag : p in Entity, line: 331 in /home/content/11/7118811/html/wp-content/plugins/wpex-auto-link-titles/wpex-auto-link-titles.php on line 38

Warning: DOMDocument::loadHTML() [domdocument.loadhtml]: Unexpected end tag : p in Entity, line: 333 in /home/content/11/7118811/html/wp-content/plugins/wpex-auto-link-titles/wpex-auto-link-titles.php on line 38

Louisville 16.0000 (8th out of 27)

The DIII, Region 9 Playoff Pictures is becoming more clear, but several questions are still left to be Beatty's Grey Striped Long Sleeveanswered. One of those questions is whether or not the Leopards will be able to sneak into the postseason when the dust clears at the end of Week 10. If the season ended today, 6-3 Louisville would take the 8th and final seed in the Region and would be traveling to face rival Marlington in the Round 1.

The Leopards are 21-point home favorites this week when the host Canton South. However, Louisville does not control their own destiny. In fact, Fantastic50.net is projected them as a bubble team that finishes 9th in the Region, missing the playoffs in the process. They are currently given a 42% chance to advance to Week 11 and that probability can increase to as much as 44% if they take care of business against the Wildcats in the regular season finale.


Donate to Leopard Nation





If the cards fall right Louisville can get as high as the fifth seed. The best most likely scenario puts them http://www.facebook.com/JenniferLBolyard/in as the eight seed with a 79% chance of their first round opponent being Marlington. Other possible opponents include Akron Hoban (12% chance) and New Philadelphia (9% chance).

While there are seemingly endless scenarios that could put the Leopards in or out when you factor in second level points, there is one concrete combination that can put Louisville in the playoffs. If the Leopards defeat Canton South and the Akron East Dragons (6-3) fall in their City Series finale at against the visiting Akron Garfield Golden Rams (3-6), then Louisville makes the postseason no matter what.

The Leopards won on the road at Salem last week 46-27. This along with gaining some second level points from the following wins allowed them to move up from 9th to 8th:

  • Alliance 52, at Minerva 49
  • Carrollton 20, at Canton South 17

Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 143rd in the state overall and 22nd in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 143rd (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 22nd (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Overall: 186th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 30th (Out of 108) toughest

Projections

Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 9th (Out of Playoffs)

Win Probabilities

6 Wins: 8%
7 Wins: 92%

Playoff Probabilities

Playoff chance
42% now (bubble if 7-3)
No home game
44% with a win in next game, and 21% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 17.20 (16.65-17.80), 21% in, not home, proj. out (#7-out)
7W: 18.70 (18.15-19.30), 44% in, not home, proj. out (#5-out)

Best realistic scenario
92% win all – 18.70 pts, 44% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 79%)

Worst realistic scenario
8.1% lose all – 17.20 pts, 21% in, range #7-out) (Alliance Marlington 86%)

Most likely other scenarios

Most likely first-round opponents
79% Alliance Marlington (9-0)
12% Akron Hoban (8-1)
9% New Philadelphia (8-1)

Championship Probabilities
Regional champ 1%

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 62% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W7: 118.3 (#141, D3 #21) 63% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W8: 118.3 (#143, D3 #22) 66% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #8

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 9)

Rank W-L School Average Level 1 Level 2 L2 divisor
1 9-0 Marlington 24.9111 46.0 198.0 100
2 8-1 Archbishop Hoban 22.5117 42.5 169.0 95
3 8-1 New Philadelphia 21.2111 41.5 166.0 100
4 8-1 Buckeye 20.5944 40.0 161.5 100
5 7-2 Howland 18.2677 38.5 138.5 99
6 6-3 Dover 17.8889 31.0 143.0 99
7 5-4 St Vincent-St Mary 16.4028 29.5 126.0 96
8 6-3 Louisville 16.0000 31.5 125.0 100
9 6-3 Akron East 15.7333 34.5 119.0 100
10 6-3 Ravenna 13.7167 33.0 100.5 100
11 5-4 West Geauga 12.6833 25.5 98.5 100
12 6-3 Canfield 11.6389 35.0 77.5 100
13 4-5 Lake Catholic 11.5758 21.0 91.5 99
14 5-4 Springfield 9.8500 27.0 68.5 100
15 4-5 Buchtel 9.5808 23.5 69.0 99
16 4-5 Niles McKinley 9.5333 21.0 72.0 100
17 5-4 Revere 9.5222 29.0 63.0 100
18 5-4 Alliance 9.1278 25.0 63.5 100
19 4-5 Carrollton 9.0354 19.5 68.0 99
20 4-5 Poland Seminary 7.6389 21.5 52.5 100
21 4-5 Norton 7.0833 21.0 47.5 100
22 4-5 Coventry 6.8778 20.5 46.0 100
23 2-7 Tallmadge 6.3778 11.5 51.0 100
24 2-7 Geneva 4.3278 11.5 30.5 100
25 2-7 Kenmore 3.7020 11.5 24.0 99
26 1-8 Harvey 1.0722 6.5 3.5 100
27 0-9 Cloverleaf 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100

Range Of Harbin Points After Week 10 Results

School Playoff Status max Avg

(win out)

min Avg

(win out)

max Avg

(lose out)

min Avg

(lose out)

L2 divisor

(final)

Marlington clinched home game 30.4500 28.9500 27.4000 25.9000 100
Archbishop Hoban clinched playoff spot 27.1158 25.9579 24.8289 23.6711 95
New Philadelphia clinched playoff spot 27.8313 25.1545 24.1500 21.4732 99
Buckeye clinched playoff spot 23.9500 22.0500 23.0000 21.1000 100
Howland control own destiny 26.0157 24.2985 20.6177 18.9005 99
Dover control own destiny 24.9126 22.8419 20.1707 18.1000 99
St Vincent-St Mary   20.8979 18.1375 18.8354 16.0750 96
Louisville   19.3000 18.1500 17.8000 16.6500 100
Akron East   19.9000 18.9000 17.5000 16.5000 100
Ravenna   17.6000 16.4500 15.5500 14.4000 100
West Geauga   17.0500 15.4500 14.4500 12.8500 100
Canfield   16.7000 14.5500 14.0000 11.8500 100
Lake Catholic mathematically eliminated 14.6192 12.5485 13.4131 11.3424 99
Springfield   16.8000 15.3000 11.6000 10.1000 100
Buchtel mathematically eliminated 13.3035 12.2934 10.9359 9.9258 99
Niles McKinley mathematically eliminated 12.4500 10.5500 11.2000 9.3000 100
Revere mathematically eliminated 16.1500 14.4500 11.5000 9.8000 100
Alliance mathematically eliminated 16.0000 14.5000 10.8500 9.3500 100
Carrollton mathematically eliminated 11.3389 9.3187 10.8389 8.8187 99
Poland Seminary mathematically eliminated 12.9500 11.9500 8.9000 7.9000 100
Norton mathematically eliminated 11.0000 9.9500 8.4000 7.3500 100
Coventry mathematically eliminated 10.9500 9.8000 8.3000 7.1500 100
Tallmadge mathematically eliminated 12.4500 11.4000 7.3000 6.2500 100
Geneva mathematically eliminated 9.3000 8.2000 5.3000 4.2000 100
Kenmore mathematically eliminated 7.9021 6.9125 4.6396 3.6500 96
Harvey mathematically eliminated 6.9500 6.3500 1.6000 1.0000 100
Cloverleaf mathematically eliminated 2.5500 2.5500 0.0000 0.0000 100

Order Leopard Nation Highlight Video

You may also like...