Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 8

Louisville Leopards Football 2016 Vs. West Branch

Louisville 12.3125 (9th out of 27)

With their dominating 49-0 win at Carrollton this past week, the 5-3 Louisville Leopards moved up a spot Beatty's Blue Louisville Logo Coatto 9th place in the DIII, Region 9 Computer Rankings. Louisville still sits one spot outside of the playoff picture heading into Week 9, but still has an 86% chance of making the postseason if they win out and finish 7-3. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

According to Fantastic50.netLouisville currently has a 66% chance to make the playoffs and that probability can increase to 82% with a win at Salem on Friday. The Quakers are on a three game-winning streak and also have a 5-3 record with a 3-2 mark against NBC competition. Drew Pasteur has Louisville as a 14 point favorite on the road at Salem. The Leopards have covered his spread in each of their past 5 games. Louisville was a 14-point favorite at Carrollton last week as well, but ended up blowing out the Warriors 49-0.


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If the Leopards make the playoffs, things are setting up nicely for a date with some familar foes in Week http://www.facebook.com/JenniferLBolyard/11. The Undefeated Dukes currently sit in 1st place in Region 9 and have a 44% chance to host the Leopards in the Regional Quarterfinals. Louisville also has a 30% chance to play the current 2nd seed Akron Archbishop Hoban (7-1) and an 18% chance to hit the road for New Philadelphia (7-1) for their first meeting with the Quakers since their 2004 playoff game.

Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 143rd in the state overall and 22nd in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 143rd (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 22nd (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Overall: 176th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 24th (Out of 108) toughest

Projections

Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.80
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 8th Seed

Win Probabilities

5 Wins: 2%
6 Wins: 26%
7 Wins: 72%

Playoff Probabilities

Playoff chance
66% now (need 7-3)
1% chance of a home game
82% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: no playoff berth
6W: 16.15 (14.65-18.85), 17% in, not home, proj. out (#6-out)
7W: 18.80 (18.15-20.50), 86% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
72% win all – 18.80 pts, 86% in (#7, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 43%)

Worst realistic scenario
2.0% lose all – 13.75 pts, Out

Most likely other scenarios
18% LW – 15.75 pts, 3% in, range #7-out) (Akron Hoban 43%)
7.9% WL – 17.25 pts, 49% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 67%)

Most likely first-round opponents
44% Alliance Marlington (8-0)
30% Akron Hoban (7-1)
18% New Philadelphia (7-1)
4% Medina Buckeye (7-1)
2% Dover (5-3)
2% some other opponent

Championship Probabilities
Regional champ 1%

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 62% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W7: 118.3 (#141, D3 #21) 63% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W8: 118.3 (#143, D3 #22) 66% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #8

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 7)

Rank

W-L

ID #

City

School

Average

Level 1

Level 2

L2 divisor

Playoff Status

(unofficial)

max Avg

(win out)

min Avg

(win out)

max Avg

(lose out)

min Avg

(lose out)

L2 divisor

(final)

1

8-0

964

Alliance

Marlington

21.0250

41.0

159.0

100

control own destiny

31.1000

28.1000

26.0000

22.0000

100

2

7-1

724

Akron

Archbishop Hoban

18.5296

37.5

131.5

95

control own destiny

29.2737

25.9053

23.6447

19.2763

95

3

7-1

1106

New Philadelphia

New Philadelphia

16.7625

36.5

122.0

100

control own destiny

30.1000

23.7500

22.8000

16.4000

100

4

7-1

276

Medina

Buckeye

16.1750

35.0

118.0

100

25.3000

21.5000

20.9500

16.2000

100

5

5-3

1384

Akron

St Vincent-St Mary

15.1458

29.5

110.0

96

27.5917

20.7688

20.0333

14.4083

96

6

5-3

472

Dover

Dover

13.5410

25.5

102.5

99

25.5187

21.3773

18.1056

12.9035

99

7

6-2

736

Warren

Howland

13.0139

33.0

88.0

99

control own destiny

26.5207

23.2379

17.6434

13.1990

99

8

5-3

1678

Chesterland

West Geauga

12.5875

25.5

94.0

100

22.9500

20.7500

16.0500

12.8500

100

9

5-3

902

Louisville

Louisville

12.3125

26.5

90.0

100

20.5000

18.1500

15.9500

12.6500

100

10

5-3

478

Akron

East

11.4250

29.0

78.0

100

20.3500

18.3000

14.5500

12.4500

100

11

6-2

304

Canfield

Canfield

11.1250

35.0

67.5

100

24.0000

17.4000

16.3500

10.8500

100

12

5-3

1281

Ravenna

Ravenna

10.9500

28.0

74.5

100

18.7000

16.4000

14.5500

11.3500

100

13

4-4

274

Akron

Buchtel

8.6951

23.5

57.0

99

17.2879

16.2778

11.3904

9.2692

99

14

4-4

112

Alliance

Alliance

8.3500

20.0

58.5

100

16.5000

14.5000

11.3000

8.3500

100

15

3-5

322

Carrollton

Carrollton

7.6711

14.5

58.0

99

13.3086

9.3187

10.1874

7.3086

99

16

4-4

1288

Richfield

Revere

7.5875

23.5

46.5

100

17.9000

13.3500

10.9500

7.6000

100

17

4-4

1264

Poland

Poland Seminary

7.4375

21.5

47.5

100

18.3500

16.0500

10.0500

7.9000

100

18

3-5

994

Niles

Niles McKinley

6.7500

16.0

47.5

100

13.5000

10.5500

9.3500

6.3500

100

19

3-5

824

Mentor

Lake Catholic

6.6345

15.5

46.5

99

14.6192

11.4374

9.4793

6.2470

99

20

4-4

428

Akron

Coventry

6.6125

20.5

40.5

100

15.7500

12.4500

9.4000

7.1000

100

21

4-4

1472

Akron

Springfield

6.3375

21.5

36.5

100

16.8000

14.6000

9.5000

6.3000

100

22

4-4

1158

Norton

Norton

6.2250

21.0

36.0

100

17.3000

13.9500

8.9500

6.7000

100

23

2-6

1522

Tallmadge

Tallmadge

6.0375

11.5

46.0

100

16.4000

13.4500

7.7500

5.7500

100

24

2-6

634

Geneva

Geneva

3.8875

11.5

24.5

100

12.9500

9.8000

5.8500

3.6000

100

25

1-7

800

Akron

Kenmore

3.1622

5.5

24.5

99

mathematically eliminated

8.5271

6.4958

4.0396

3.1021

96

26

1-7

698

Painesville

Harvey

1.1625

6.5

3.5

100

mathematically eliminated

10.1500

7.8500

2.2000

1.0000

100

27

0-8

390

Lodi

Cloverleaf

0.0000

0.0

0.0

100

mathematically eliminated

5.1500

4.0500

0.0000

0.0000

100

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