Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 7

Louisville Leopards Vs. Archbishop Hoban Knights Football Scrimmage 2016 Danny Clark

Louisville 9.45900 (10th out of 27)

With their 44-20 victory over the West Branch Warriors this past week, the 4-3 Louisville Leopards Beatty's Blue Louisville Logo Coatmaintained their 10th place spot in the DIII, Region 9 Computer Rankings. However, with only 8 teams qualifying the Leopards are still on the outside of the postseason picture. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

According to Fantastic50.netLouisville currently has a 63% chance to make the playoffs and that probability can increase to 74% with a win over host Carrollton on Friday. The Warriors are currently winless in league play, but a Leopard loss would shrink Louisville’s playoffs chances to only 15%. Every game is critical from here on out for Louisville as they make a push for Week 11. The Leopards have covered Drew Pasteur’s spread in each of their past 4 games and are 14-point road favorites for Week 8.


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If Louisville makes the playoffs they will almost certainly be on the road in Week 11 as they have just a http://www.facebook.com/JenniferLBolyard/1% chance of a home game at this point in the season. There most likely opponent is the 6-1 Akron Archbishop Hoban. The Leopards have a 32% chance to play the Knights in round one, a 29% chance to rematch at Marlington (7-0), and a 21% chance to travel to New Philadelphia (6-1) to take on the Quakers.

Louisville does not control their own destiny, but has a 91% chance to make the postseason if they win out. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 141st in the state overall and 21st in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 141st (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 21st (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 8th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Overall: 157th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 25th (Out of 108) toughest

Projections

Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 6th Seed

Win Probabilities

5 Wins: 6%
6 Wins: 33%
7 Wins: 60%

Playoff Probabilities

Playoff chance
63% now (need 7-3)
1% chance of a home game
74% with a win in next game, and 15% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: no playoff berth
6W: 16.20 (14.05-18.90), 25% in, not home, proj. out (#5-out)
7W: 18.70 (17.50-20.40), 91% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
60% win all – 18.70 pts, 91% in and 2% home (#7, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 32%)

Worst realistic scenario
0.4% lose all – 11.20 pts, Out

Most likely other scenarios
13% LWW – 16.20 pts, 21% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 63%)
12% WLW – 15.80 pts, 17% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 64%)
8.5% WWL – 16.70 pts, 44% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 50%)
2.9% LLW – 13.25 pts, Out
1.8% LWL – 14.15 pts, Out
1.2% WLL – 13.75 pts, Out

Most likely first-round opponents
32% Akron Hoban (6-1)
29% Alliance Marlington (7-0)
21% New Philadelphia (6-1)
6% Dover (4-3)
4% Medina Buckeye (6-1)
8% some other opponent

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 62% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6
W7: 118.3 (#141, D3 #21) 63% (need 7-3), 1% H, proj. #6

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 7)

Rank

W-L

ID #

City

School

Average

Level 1

Level 2

L2 divisor

1

7-0

964

Alliance

Marlington

18.9929

36.0

138.5

100

2

6-1

724

Akron

Archbishop Hoban

16.3229

31.5

113.5

96

3

6-1

1106

New Philadelphia

New Philadelphia

12.3286

31.0

79.0

100

4

5-2

736

Warren

Howland

11.2013

27.5

72.0

99

5

6-1

276

Medina

Buckeye

11.1357

30.0

68.5

100

6

4-3

478

Akron

East

10.5857

23.0

73.0

100

7

4-3

1384

Akron

St Vincent-St Mary

10.5774

23.0

70.0

96

8

5-2

304

Canfield

Canfield

9.9429

29.0

58.0

100

9

4-3

1281

Ravenna

Ravenna

9.6643

22.5

64.5

100

10

4-3

902

Louisville

Louisville

9.4500

21.0

64.5

100

11

4-3

472

Dover

Dover

9.3000

21.0

63.0

100

12

4-3

112

Alliance

Alliance

8.2071

20.0

53.5

100

13

4-3

1678

Chesterland

West Geauga

8.2000

21.0

52.0

100

14

4-3

1288

Richfield

Revere

7.5071

23.5

41.5

100

15

4-3

1264

Poland

Poland Seminary

7.0214

21.5

39.5

100

16

4-3

428

Akron

Coventry

6.9786

20.5

40.5

100

17

3-4

322

Carrollton

Carrollton

6.9704

14.5

48.5

99

18

3-4

824

Mentor

Lake Catholic

6.3052

15.5

40.5

99

19

3-4

994

Niles

Niles McKinley

6.1357

16.0

38.5

100

20

2-5

1522

Tallmadge

Tallmadge

5.1429

11.5

35.0

100

21

3-4

1472

Akron

Springfield

4.5071

16.5

21.5

100

22

3-4

274

Akron

Buchtel

4.3182

17.5

18.0

99

23

3-4

1158

Norton

Norton

3.8357

16.0

15.5

100

24

2-5

634

Geneva

Geneva

3.4929

11.5

18.5

100

25

1-6

800

Akron

Kenmore

2.0483

5.5

12.5

99

26

1-6

698

Painesville

Harvey

1.2786

6.5

3.5

100

27

0-7

390

Lodi

Cloverleaf

0.0000

0.0

0.0

100

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