Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 6
Louisville 6.4667 (10th out of 27)
With their 24-21 loss against the Marlington Dukes this past week, the 3-3 Louisville Leopards are now on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Louisville is currently ranked 10th in the Harbin Computer Rankings with only the top 8 teams qualifying for Division III, Region 9. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Still hope remains as the Leopards head into Week 7 against the West Branch Warriors. According to Fantastic50.net, Louisville currently has a 60% chance to make the postseason and that probability can increase to 67% with a win over the visiting Warriors on Friday. A loss would be detrimental to the Leopards as it would drop their playoff chances to just 21%, Louisville is an 18 point favorites at home against West Branch this week and has covered the spread set by Joe Pasteur in each of the past 3 games.
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The Leopards can gain 5.0 1st Level Harbin Points with a win and also 15.5 2nd Level points from the Warriors as well. Louisville got a big boost when Canfield beat Boardman last week 24-20. This gave the Leopards 6.0 second level computer points. Alliance also won a rescheduled Saturday Morning game at West Branch 34-24 to add 5.0 second level points to Louisville’s total. They can also earn up to 16.0 second level points this week from the following games:
- 5.5 – If Canfield wins at Niles McKinley
- 5.5 – If Alliance wins at home against Carrollton
- 5.0 – If Minerva wins at home against Salem
If the Leopards make the playoffs, they can expect to hit the road in Week 11. Louisville has just a 2% chance of earning a home game in the first round of the playoffs. Even if they win out, the chance of a home game at Louisville Leopards Stadium is only 4%. However, winning their remaining four games would give them a 93% chance of making the postseason.
If the Leopards would make the playoffs they could face some familiar faces. Louisville is given a 28% chance to rematch with the Archbishop Hoban Knights and there is a 27% chance that they could get a grudge match at Marlington. Other potential opponents include New Philadelphia (22% chance), West Geauga (6% chance), and Canfield (4% chance).
Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 148th in the state overall and 22nd in Division III. Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities
Rankings
State Ranking: 148th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 22st (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 7th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Overall: 131st (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 15th (Out of 108) toughest
Projections
Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 7th Seed
Win Probabilities
4 Wins: 1%
5 Wins: 10%
6 Wins: 38%
7 Wins: 50%
Playoff Probabilities
Chance of Making Playoffs: 60%
Chance of a Home Game: 2%
Playoff Chance with win over West Branch: 67%
Playoff Chance with loss to West Branch: 21%
Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: no playoff berth
5W: 13.27 (11.05-16.30), 2% in, not home, proj. out
6W: 16.10 (13.45-18.30), 34% in, 1% home, proj. out (#4-out)
7W: 18.70 (16.95-20.90), 93% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
Best realistic scenario
50% win all – 18.70 pts, 93% in and 4% home (#7, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 27%)
Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLWW – 13.10 pts, 1% in, range #8-out)
Most likely other scenarios
15% WLWW – 15.65 pts, 25% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 54%)
9.2% WWLW – 15.75 pts, 35% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 52%)
8.7% LWWW – 16.10 pts, 35% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 54%)
5.9% WWWL – 16.65 pts, 56% in (#8, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 47%)
2.5% WLLW – 13.15 pts, 1% in, range #8-out)
(7% some other outcome)
Most likely first-round opponents
28% Akron Hoban (5-1)
27% Alliance Marlington (6-0)
22% New Philadelphia (5-1)
6% West Geauga (4-2)
4% Canfield (4-2)
13% some other opponent
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
W6: 117.7 (#148, D3 #22) 60% (bubble if 6-4), 2% H, proj. #7
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 6)
Rank |
W-L |
ID # |
City |
School |
Average |
Level 1 |
Level 2 |
L2 divisor |
1 |
6-0 |
964 |
Alliance |
Marlington |
15.3667 |
31.0 |
102.0 |
100 |
2 |
5-1 |
724 |
Akron |
Archbishop Hoban |
11.7313 |
26.0 |
72.5 |
98 |
3 |
5-1 |
1106 |
New Philadelphia |
New Philadelphia |
10.2500 |
25.5 |
60.0 |
100 |
4 |
4-2 |
736 |
Warren |
Howland |
8.8500 |
22.5 |
51.0 |
100 |
5 |
4-2 |
1678 |
Chesterland |
West Geauga |
8.7000 |
21.0 |
52.0 |
100 |
6 |
5-1 |
276 |
Medina |
Buckeye |
8.4500 |
25.5 |
42.0 |
100 |
7 |
3-3 |
1384 |
Akron |
St Vincent-St Mary |
7.6787 |
17.0 |
47.0 |
97 |
8 |
4-2 |
304 |
Canfield |
Canfield |
7.5667 |
23.5 |
36.5 |
100 |
9 |
4-2 |
1288 |
Richfield |
Revere |
7.0167 |
23.5 |
31.0 |
100 |
10 |
3-3 |
902 |
Louisville |
Louisville |
6.4667 |
16.0 |
38.0 |
100 |
11 |
3-3 |
112 |
Alliance |
Alliance |
6.3167 |
14.5 |
39.0 |
100 |
12 |
3-3 |
994 |
Niles |
Niles McKinley |
6.1167 |
16.0 |
34.5 |
100 |
13 |
3-3 |
1264 |
Poland |
Poland Seminary |
6.0833 |
15.5 |
35.0 |
100 |
14 |
3-3 |
1281 |
Ravenna |
Ravenna |
6.0333 |
17.0 |
32.0 |
100 |
15 |
3-3 |
322 |
Carrollton |
Carrollton |
5.9520 |
14.5 |
35.0 |
99 |
16 |
3-3 |
472 |
Dover |
Dover |
5.7167 |
16.0 |
30.5 |
100 |
17 |
3-3 |
478 |
Akron |
East |
5.6833 |
17.0 |
28.5 |
100 |
18 |
2-4 |
1522 |
Tallmadge |
Tallmadge |
4.8667 |
11.5 |
29.5 |
100 |
19 |
2-4 |
824 |
Mentor |
Lake Catholic |
4.6970 |
10.0 |
30.0 |
99 |
20 |
3-3 |
428 |
Akron |
Coventry |
4.5833 |
15.5 |
20.0 |
100 |
21 |
3-3 |
1158 |
Norton |
Norton |
4.2167 |
16.0 |
15.5 |
100 |
22 |
2-4 |
1472 |
Akron |
Springfield |
3.9833 |
11.0 |
21.5 |
100 |
23 |
2-4 |
634 |
Geneva |
Geneva |
3.7667 |
11.5 |
18.5 |
100 |
24 |
2-4 |
274 |
Akron |
Buchtel |
2.4667 |
11.5 |
5.5 |
100 |
25 |
1-5 |
800 |
Akron |
Kenmore |
1.5227 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
99 |
26 |
1-5 |
698 |
Painesville |
Harvey |
1.4333 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
100 |
27 |
0-6 |
390 |
Lodi |
Cloverleaf |
0.0000 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100 |
Pictures
Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography
View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the Jim & Laura Photography Website