Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 5
Louisville 5.9000 (7th out of 27)
With their 53-0 win over the Minerva Lions this past week, the 3-2 Louisville Leopards are currently ranked 7th in Harbin Points for Division III, Region 9. Thus, if the playoffs started today they would be in and would hit the road to face the 2nd ranked Archbishop Hoban Knights. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Louisville will travel to undefeated Marlington this week. The Dukes are currently ranked first in Harbin Points for DIII, Region 9 and claims a #6 ranking in the latest DIII Associated Press Poll. According to Fantastic50.net, Marlington is an 8-point favorite at home this week against the Leopards. Louisville has covered Joe Pasteur’s spread handily in each of the past two weeks.
Friday’s game may not only determine who wins the NBC, but also whether or not the Leopards will make the postseason or not. According to Fantastic50.net Louisville has a 65% chance of making the playoffs heading into Week 6. That chance can increase to 94% with a win over the Dukes, but falls to just 51% if they lose at Marlington.
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In addition to gaining 5.5 1st Level Harbin points with a win, the Leopards can also claim 25.5 2nd Level points from the Dukes as well. This alone would bump their average from 5.9000 to 8.8333, which would put them in position for a home playoff game.
Louisville currently has just a 17% of earning a home playoff game, but if they would win out and go 8-2 that percentage rises to a favorable 82% chance. In terms of making the postseason, the Leopards control their own destiny as in all scenarios an 8-2 record gets them to the playoffs. They are given just a 14% chance of fulfilling this best case scenario.
Louisville picked up only 5.0 second level points in Week 5 courtesy of Alliance’s 47-28 home win over Canton South. A chance to gain an additional 5.0 second level points went by the wayside as Canfield fell at Struthers 38-21 last Friday. The Cardinals host 2-3 Boardman, the Aviators travel to 3-2 West Branch, and the 0-5 Minerva Lions hit the road for Canton South in Week 6 for potential second level point opportunities for the Leopards.
The highest potential Louisville Week 11 opponents include the Hoban Knights, New Philadelphia Quakers, and believe it or not the Marlington Dukes. All three potential opponents are given a 19% chance to play Louisville in the opening round. Other likely opponents include Warren Howland and West Geauga who are given a 9% chance each. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 140th in the state overall and 21st in Division III.
Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities
Rankings
State Ranking: 140th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 21st (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 7th (Out of 27)
Strength of Schedule
Overall: 187th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 30th (Out of 108) toughest
Projections
Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.15
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 6th Seed
Win Probabilities
5 Wins: 9%
6 Wins: 32%
7 Wins: 44%
8 Wins: 14%
Playoff Probabilities
Chance of Making Playoffs: 65%
Chance of a Home Game: 17%
Playoff Chance with win Over Marlington: 94%
Playoff Chance with loss to Marlington: 51%
Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: no playoff berth
5W: 12.50 (9.20-17.35), 2% in, not home, proj. out
6W: 15.10 (12.25-20.95), 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#4-out)
7W: 18.15 (16.30-22.95), 93% in, 12% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 22.75 (21.45-24.50), 100% in, 82% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)
Best realistic scenario
14% win all – 22.75 pts, In and 82% home (#4, range #1-#7) (West Geauga 18%)
Worst realistic scenario
2.8% LLLWW – 11.45 pts, Out
Most likely other scenarios
31% LWWWW – 18.05 pts, 91% in and 5% home (#7, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 28%)
14% LWLWW – 14.55 pts, 11% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 63%)
7.0% LLWWW – 14.90 pts, 20% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 64%)
6.4% WWLWW – 19.25 pts, 97% in and 19% home (#6, range #2-out) (Alliance Marlington 18%)
3.9% LWWLW – 15.70 pts, 46% in, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 41%)
3.5% LWWWL – 16.05 pts, 55% in (#8, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 45%)
(17% some other outcome)
Most likely first-round opponents
19% Akron Hoban (4-1)
19% Alliance Marlington (5-0)
19% New Philadelphia (4-1)
9% Warren Howland (3-2)
9% West Geauga (3-2)
25% some other opponent
Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 5)
Rank |
W-L |
ID # |
City |
School |
Average |
Level 1 |
Level 2 |
L2 divisor |
1 |
5-0 |
964 |
Alliance |
Marlington |
12.1500 |
25.5 |
70.5 |
100 |
2 |
4-1 |
724 |
Akron |
Archbishop Hoban |
8.9980 |
20.5 |
48.0 |
98 |
3 |
4-1 |
1106 |
New Philadelphia |
New Philadelphia |
8.4000 |
20.5 |
43.0 |
100 |
4 |
3-2 |
736 |
Warren |
Howland |
7.4000 |
16.5 |
41.0 |
100 |
5 |
3-2 |
1678 |
Chesterland |
West Geauga |
6.2500 |
16.5 |
29.5 |
100 |
6 |
3-2 |
1264 |
Poland |
Poland Seminary |
6.1000 |
15.5 |
30.0 |
100 |
7 |
3-2 |
902 |
Louisville |
Louisville |
5.9000 |
16.0 |
27.0 |
100 |
8t |
3-2 |
994 |
Niles |
Niles McKinley |
5.7000 |
16.0 |
25.0 |
100 |
8t |
4-1 |
276 |
Medina |
Buckeye |
5.7000 |
21.0 |
15.0 |
100 |
10 |
3-2 |
1288 |
Richfield |
Revere |
5.6000 |
17.5 |
21.0 |
100 |
11 |
3-2 |
304 |
Canfield |
Canfield |
5.5500 |
17.5 |
20.5 |
100 |
12 |
3-2 |
322 |
Carrollton |
Carrollton |
5.5263 |
14.5 |
26.0 |
99 |
13 |
3-2 |
1158 |
Norton |
Norton |
4.7500 |
16.0 |
15.5 |
100 |
14 |
3-2 |
428 |
Akron |
Coventry |
4.6000 |
15.5 |
15.0 |
100 |
15 |
2-3 |
1384 |
Akron |
St Vincent-St Mary |
4.2182 |
12.0 |
18.0 |
99 |
16 |
2-3 |
824 |
Mentor |
Lake Catholic |
4.2000 |
10.0 |
22.0 |
100 |
17 |
2-3 |
1522 |
Tallmadge |
Tallmadge |
4.1000 |
11.5 |
18.0 |
100 |
18 |
2-3 |
472 |
Dover |
Dover |
3.6500 |
10.5 |
15.5 |
100 |
19 |
2-3 |
1281 |
Ravenna |
Ravenna |
3.4000 |
11.5 |
11.0 |
100 |
20 |
2-3 |
112 |
Alliance |
Alliance |
3.3500 |
9.5 |
14.5 |
100 |
21 |
2-3 |
478 |
Akron |
East |
3.3000 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
100 |
22 |
1-4 |
634 |
Geneva |
Geneva |
1.8000 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
100 |
23 |
1-4 |
800 |
Akron |
Kenmore |
1.7061 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
99 |
24t |
1-4 |
698 |
Painesville |
Harvey |
1.6500 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
100 |
24t |
1-4 |
1472 |
Akron |
Springfield |
1.6500 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
100 |
26 |
1-4 |
274 |
Akron |
Buchtel |
1.2000 |
6.0 |
0.0 |
100 |
27 |
0-5 |
390 |
Lodi |
Cloverleaf |
0.0000 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100 |
Pictures
Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography
View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the Jim & Laura Photography Website