Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 5

Louisville 5.9000 (7th out of 27)

With their 53-0 win over the Minerva Lions this past week, the 3-2 Louisville Leopards are currently Beatty's Sports Louisville Leopards Football 2016 Grey Schedule Shirtranked 7th in Harbin Points for Division III, Region 9. Thus, if the playoffs started today they would be in and would hit the road to face the 2nd ranked Archbishop Hoban Knights. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Louisville will travel to undefeated Marlington this week. The Dukes are currently ranked first in Harbin Points for DIII, Region 9 and claims a #6 ranking in the latest DIII Associated Press Poll. According to Fantastic50.net, Marlington is an 8-point favorite at home this week against the Leopards. Louisville has covered Joe Pasteur’s spread handily in each of the past two weeks.

Friday’s game may not only determine who wins the NBC, but also whether or not the Leopards will make the postseason or not. According to Fantastic50.net  Louisville has a 65% chance of making the playoffs heading into Week 6. That chance can increase to 94% with a win over the Dukes, but falls to just 51% if they lose at Marlington.


Donate to Leopard Nation





In addition to gaining 5.5 1st Level Harbin points with a win, the Leopards can also claim 25.5 2nd Level JennCanAdpoints from the Dukes as well. This alone would bump their average from 5.9000 to 8.8333, which would put them in position for a home playoff game.

Louisville currently has just a 17% of earning a home playoff game, but if they would win out and go 8-2 that percentage rises to a favorable 82% chance. In terms of making the postseason, the Leopards control their own destiny as in all scenarios an 8-2 record gets them to the playoffs. They are given just a 14% chance of fulfilling this best case scenario.

Louisville picked up only 5.0 second level points in Week 5 courtesy of Alliance’s 47-28 home win over Leopard Nation $5 ChallengeCanton South. A chance to gain an additional 5.0 second level points went by the wayside as Canfield fell at Struthers 38-21 last Friday. The Cardinals host 2-3 Boardman, the Aviators travel to 3-2 West Branch, and the 0-5 Minerva Lions hit the road for Canton South in Week 6 for potential second level point opportunities for the Leopards.

The highest potential Louisville Week 11 opponents include the Hoban Knights, New Philadelphia Quakers, and believe it or not the Marlington Dukes. All three potential opponents are given a 19% chance to play Louisville in the opening round. Other likely opponents include Warren Howland and West Geauga who are given a 9% chance each.  Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 140th in the state overall and 21st in Division III.

Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 140th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 21st (Out of 108)
Region 9 Ranking: 7th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Overall: 187th (Out of 720) toughest
Division III Ranking: 30th (Out of 108) toughest

Projections

Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 18.15
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 6th Seed

Win Probabilities

5 Wins: 9%
6 Wins: 32%
7 Wins: 44%
8 Wins: 14%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: 65%
Chance of a Home Game: 17%

Playoff Chance with win Over Marlington: 94%
Playoff Chance with loss to Marlington: 51%

Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: no playoff berth
5W: 12.50 (9.20-17.35), 2% in, not home, proj. out
6W: 15.10 (12.25-20.95), 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#4-out)
7W: 18.15 (16.30-22.95), 93% in, 12% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 22.75 (21.45-24.50), 100% in, 82% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
14% win all – 22.75 pts, In and 82% home (#4, range #1-#7) (West Geauga 18%)

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% LLLWW – 11.45 pts, Out

Most likely other scenarios
31% LWWWW – 18.05 pts, 91% in and 5% home (#7, range #3-out) (Akron Hoban 28%)
14% LWLWW – 14.55 pts, 11% in, range #6-out) (Alliance Marlington 63%)
7.0% LLWWW – 14.90 pts, 20% in, range #5-out) (Alliance Marlington 64%)
6.4% WWLWW – 19.25 pts, 97% in and 19% home (#6, range #2-out) (Alliance Marlington 18%)
3.9% LWWLW – 15.70 pts, 46% in, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 41%)
3.5% LWWWL – 16.05 pts, 55% in (#8, range #4-out) (Alliance Marlington 45%)
(17% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round opponents
19% Akron Hoban (4-1)
19% Alliance Marlington (5-0)
19% New Philadelphia (4-1)
9% Warren Howland (3-2)
9% West Geauga (3-2)
25% some other opponent

Week-by-week ranking & projection summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
W3: 118.8 (#127, D3 #17) 38% (need 7-3), 11% H, proj. out
W4: 118.7 (#137, D3 #20) 58% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #4
W5: 117.8 (#140, D3 #21) 65% (need 7-3), 17% H, proj. #6

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 9 (Post Week 5)

Rank

W-L

ID #

City

School

Average

Level 1

Level 2

L2 divisor

1

5-0

964

Alliance

Marlington

12.1500

25.5

70.5

100

2

4-1

724

Akron

Archbishop Hoban

8.9980

20.5

48.0

98

3

4-1

1106

New Philadelphia

New Philadelphia

8.4000

20.5

43.0

100

4

3-2

736

Warren

Howland

7.4000

16.5

41.0

100

5

3-2

1678

Chesterland

West Geauga

6.2500

16.5

29.5

100

6

3-2

1264

Poland

Poland Seminary

6.1000

15.5

30.0

100

7

3-2

902

Louisville

Louisville

5.9000

16.0

27.0

100

8t

3-2

994

Niles

Niles McKinley

5.7000

16.0

25.0

100

8t

4-1

276

Medina

Buckeye

5.7000

21.0

15.0

100

10

3-2

1288

Richfield

Revere

5.6000

17.5

21.0

100

11

3-2

304

Canfield

Canfield

5.5500

17.5

20.5

100

12

3-2

322

Carrollton

Carrollton

5.5263

14.5

26.0

99

13

3-2

1158

Norton

Norton

4.7500

16.0

15.5

100

14

3-2

428

Akron

Coventry

4.6000

15.5

15.0

100

15

2-3

1384

Akron

St Vincent-St Mary

4.2182

12.0

18.0

99

16

2-3

824

Mentor

Lake Catholic

4.2000

10.0

22.0

100

17

2-3

1522

Tallmadge

Tallmadge

4.1000

11.5

18.0

100

18

2-3

472

Dover

Dover

3.6500

10.5

15.5

100

19

2-3

1281

Ravenna

Ravenna

3.4000

11.5

11.0

100

20

2-3

112

Alliance

Alliance

3.3500

9.5

14.5

100

21

2-3

478

Akron

East

3.3000

11.0

11.0

100

22

1-4

634

Geneva

Geneva

1.8000

6.0

6.0

100

23

1-4

800

Akron

Kenmore

1.7061

5.5

6.0

99

24t

1-4

698

Painesville

Harvey

1.6500

6.5

3.5

100

24t

1-4

1472

Akron

Springfield

1.6500

5.5

5.5

100

26

1-4

274

Akron

Buchtel

1.2000

6.0

0.0

100

27

0-5

390

Lodi

Cloverleaf

0.0000

0.0

0.0

100

Pictures

Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography

View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the  Jim & Laura Photography Website

Jim and Laura Photography

Order Leopard Nation Highlight Video

You may also like...

Tyler Adams Louisville Leopards Vs. North Canton Hoover Vikings 2016 Football