Louisville Leopards 2016 Football Playoff Picture After Week 2
Louisville 3.30000 (T-8th out of 27)
Even after losing at Hoover 24-21 this past Friday, the 1-1 Louisville Leopards are still tied for the eighth and final playoff spot with the Norton Panthers in DIII, Region 9. They would have to hit the road to take on the top seeded Richfield Revere Minutemen in the playoffs started today. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Louisville picked up 5.5 second level points courtesy of Canfield’s 45-21 win on the road at Alliance in Week 2. The Cardinals return home to face the Division II Kenston Bombers (1-1) which is another opportunity for the Leopards to pick up 6.0 second level Harbin Points.
This week Louisville hosts the Austintown Fitch Falcons (1-1) who fell at Division II Hudson 17-7 in Week 1 and defeated Division I Brunswick 27-20 in Week 2. If the Leopards can pull off the upset, they would would pick up 6.5 first level points and 6.5 second level points.
Fantastic50.net has Louisville as a 10 point underdog at home this week against Fitch. The Leopards failed to beat the spread in each of the first two weeks as they were favored to beat Canfield by 8 (Louisville Won 21-17) and beat Hoover by 7 (Louisville Lost 24-21).
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Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Louisville
currently has a 56% chance to make the postseason. This week’s matchup is critical for the Leopards as that chance rises to 79% with a win against the Falcons, but drops to 47% with a loss against Fitch.
Louisville controls their own playoff destiny. While, they are given just a 3.8% chance to win out the rest of the way, if they did they would make it to the playoffs in every possible scenario. They would also have a 99% chance of hosting a playoff game come Week 11. Currently, the Leopards have just a 24% chance of hosting a playoff game coming into this week.
While the season is young, Fanatastic50.net projects Louisville’s most likely first round opponents as the Marlington Dukes (14% chance), New Philadelphia Quakers (14% chance), and Archbishop Hoban Knights (13% chance). Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 111th in the state overall and 10th in Division III.
Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!
Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities
Rankings
State Ranking: 111th (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 15th (Out of 108)
Region 7 Ranking: 6th (Out of 27)
Projections
Projected Record: 7-3
Projected Harbin Points: 19.15
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 7th Seed
Win Probabilities
5 Wins: 11%
6 Wins: 29%
7 Wins: 35%
8 Wins: 19%
9 Wins: 4%
Playoff Probabilities
Chance of Making Playoffs: 56%
Chance of a Home Game: 24%
Playoff Chance with win Over Austintown Fitch: 79%
Playoff Chance with loss to Austintown Fitch: 47%
Playoff Chance By Win Scenarios
8W: 24.65 (24.10-25.35), 100% in, 4% home, proj. #5 (#3-#6)
9W: 25.70 (25.65-26.90), 100% in, 28% home, proj. #5 (#2-#5)
Condition Playoff Scenarios
4W: no playoff berth
5W: 12.50 (8.30-18.45), 1% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 15.63 (11.30-22.95), 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#2-out)
7W: 19.15 (14.45-25.65), 82% in, 14% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
8W: 23.00 (18.80-28.25), 99% in, 80% home, proj. #3 (#1-out)
9W: 27.17 (23.65-30.70), 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
Best Realistic Scenario
3.8% win all – 27.17 pts, In and 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) (Medina Buckeye 13%)
Worst Realistic Scenario
2.4% LWWLLLWW – 11.05 pts, Out
Most Likely Scenarios
11% LWWLWWWW – 18.55 pts, 74% in (#7, range #2-out) (New Philadelphia 21%)
9.1% LWWWWWWW – 22.95 pts, In and 85% home (#3, range #1-#8) (Medina Buckeye 12%)
8.0% LWWLWLWW – 14.50 pts, 1% in, range #7-out)
6.4% LWWWWLWW – 18.85 pts, 78% in (#7, range #2-out) (New Philadelphia 19%)
4.5% WWWLWWWW – 22.50 pts, 99% in and 64% home (#4, range #1-out) (Medina Buckeye 13%)
3.9% LWWLLWWW – 15.10 pts, 5% in, range #7-out)
(51% some other outcome)
Most Likely First-round Opponents
14% Alliance Marlington (2-0)
14% New Philadelphia (2-0)
13% Akron Hoban (1-1)
11% Akron SVSM (2-0)
9% Medina Buckeye (1-1)
39% some other opponent
Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summmary
Pre: 124.6 (#74, D3 #10) 80% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W1: 124.5 (#69, D3 #7) 79% (bubble if 7-3), 54% H, proj. #1
W2: 119.8 (#111, D3 #15) 59% (need 7-3), 26% H, proj. #7
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 8)
Rank | W-L | ID # | City | School | Average | Level 1 | Level 2 | L2 divisor |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2-0 | 1288 | Richfield | Revere | 6.3000 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 100 |
2 | 2-0 | 964 | Alliance | Marlington | 6.0500 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 100 |
3 | 2-0 | 1384 | Akron | St Vincent-St Mary | 6.0000 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
4 | 2-0 | 1106 | New Philadelphia | New Philadelphia | 5.6000 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 100 |
5 | 2-0 | 322 | Carrollton | Carrollton | 5.2000 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 100 |
6 | 1-1 | 724 | Akron | Archbishop Hoban | 3.8500 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 100 |
7 | 1-1 | 634 | Geneva | Geneva | 3.6000 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 100 |
8t | 1-1 | 902 | Louisville | Louisville | 3.3000 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 100 |
8t | 1-1 | 1158 | Norton | Norton | 3.3000 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 100 |
10t | 1-1 | 698 | Painesville | Harvey | 3.2500 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 100 |
10t | 1-1 | 276 | Medina | Buckeye | 3.2500 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 100 |
10t | 1-1 | 1264 | Poland | Poland Seminary | 3.2500 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 100 |
13t | 1-1 | 304 | Canfield | Canfield | 2.7500 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 100 |
13t | 1-1 | 478 | Akron | East | 2.7500 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 100 |
13t | 1-1 | 800 | Akron | Kenmore | 2.7500 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 99 |
13t | 1-1 | 1522 | Tallmadge | Tallmadge | 2.7500 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 100 |
17t | 1-1 | 428 | Akron | Coventry | 2.5000 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
17t | 1-1 | 472 | Dover | Dover | 2.5000 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
17t | 1-1 | 824 | Mentor | Lake Catholic | 2.5000 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
17t | 1-1 | 994 | Niles | Niles McKinley | 2.5000 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 112 | Alliance | Alliance | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 274 | Akron | Buchtel | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 390 | Lodi | Cloverleaf | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 736 | Warren | Howland | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 1281 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 1472 | Akron | Springfield | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
21t | 0-2 | 1678 | Chesterland | West Geauga | 0.0000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100 |
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Pictures
Cover Photo Taken By Jim & Laura Photography
View & Purchase Louisville Leopards Pictures on the Jim & Laura Photography Website