Louisville Leopards 2015 Football Playoff Picture After Week 9

By Leopard Nation · October 26, 2015

Rahzul Young Louisville Leopards Vs. Alliance Aviators Football 2015

Louisville 16.9625

With their 40-10 win over Salem Friday, the Leopards clinched a playoff spot for the third straight year and the 16th time in school history. Louisville moved from 5th to 4th place in the Division III, Region 7 Playoff Rankings.

The Leopards received second level points from the following opponents victories this past week:

Canfield 20, Howland 14
Alliance 28, Minerva 27
West Branch 33, Marlington 27
Carrollton 27, Canton South 16

If the season ended today, the Leopards would be hosting the current fifth seed Medina Buckeye (9-0) for the opening round of the playoffs. However, Drew Pasteur of Fantastic50.net projects the two teams swapping seeds after Week 10, which would send Louisville to Medina Buckeye in the first round. Akron Archbishop Hoban (9-0) is the only team in DIII, Region 7 that has already cliched a home game. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors the Leopards home playoff chances & playoff opponents. Louisville currently has a 27% chance of hosting a playoff game. The Leopards have a 94% chance of defeating Canton South Friday Night and are favored over the Wildcats by 25 on the road. A victory over South would up Louisville’s chances of hosting a home game first round to just 28%. Although not realistic, the Leopards could get as high as the 2nd seed with a win and could land anywhere from seeds 3-6 with a loss.

In the first round the Leopards have the greatest chance to play undefeated Medina Buckeye. Fantastic 50 gives this scenario a 61% chance of happening. Other possible opponents include Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary (8-1) 18%, Poland (9-0) 12%, and West Geauga (8-1) 7%. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 77th in the state overall and 10th in Division III.

Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 77th(Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 10th (Out of 108)
Region 7 Ranking: 5th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Strength of schedule – 0.675
State: 188th Toughest (Out of 720)
DIII Comparison: 27th Toughest (Out of 108)

Projections

Projected Record: 9-1
Projected Harbin Points: 25.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 5th Seed

Win Probabilities

8 Wins: 5%
9 Wins: 95%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: Clinched Playoff Birth
Chance of a Home Game: 27%

Home Playoff Game Chance with win Over Canton South: 28%
Home Playoff Game Chance with loss to Canton South: 4%

Playoff Chance By Win Scenarios
8W: 24.65 (24.10-25.35), 100% in, 4% home, proj. #5 (#3-#6)
9W: 25.70 (25.65-26.90), 100% in, 28% home, proj. #5 (#2-#5)

Best Realistic Scenario
95% win all – 25.70 pts, In and 28% home (#5, range #2-#5) (Medina Buckeye 63%)

Worst Realistic Scenario
5.0% lose all – 24.65 pts, In and 4% home (#5, range #3-#6) (Akron SVSM 46%)

Most Likely First-round Opponents
61% Medina Buckeye (9-0)
18% Akron SVSM (8-1)
12% Poland (9-0)
7% West Geauga (8-1)
1% Canfield (7-2)
1% some other opponent

Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summary
Pre: 121.6 (#106, D3 #20) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 38% H, proj. #4
W1: 125.0 (#76, D3 #12) 88% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #3
W2: 128.1 (#61, D3 #9) 96% (need 7-3), 70% H, proj. #2
W3: 126.2 (#75, D3 #12) 92% (need 7-3), 52% H, proj. #6
W4: 123.1 (#95, D3 #15) 90% (need 7-3), 34% H, proj. #6
W5: 123.4 (#93, D3 #13) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 38% H, proj. #5
W6: 124.4 (#85, D3 #11) 95% (bubble if 7-3), 27% H, proj. #5

Championship Probabilities
Regional Championship: 2%