Louisville Leopards 2015 Football Playoff Picture After Week 7

Louisville Leopards Football 2007 Regional Championship Trophy Plaque

Louisville 13.7643

With their come from behind 34-20 victory over West Branch Friday, the Leopards maintained their 6th Beatty's Grey Jacketplace spot in the Division III, Region 7 Playoff Rankings. A loss would have dropped them to 10th in the Region.

Louisville received second level points from the following opponents victories this week:

  • Canfield 50, Niles McKinley 6
  • North Canton Hoover 48, Green 42
  • Marlington 27, Canton South 24

If the season ended today, the Leopards  would be traveling to third seeded Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary for the opening round of the playoffs. Akron Archbishop Hoban still holds the top seed in DIII, Region 7. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. Louisville currently has a 99% chance to make the postseason. The Leopards have a 93% chance to defeat Carrollton Friday night and can maintain their 99% chance of making the postseason with a win at home. A loss to the Warriors would drop those playoff chances to 88%.

More critical is the Leopards chances of hosting a first round playoff game. Currently they have a 48% chance of hosting a home playoff game and a 63% chance of an opening round home game if they win out. However, if Louisville loses just one game out of the last three then their chances of hosting an opening round playoff game fall to only 9%.

In the first round the Leopards have the greatest chance to play undefeated Medina Buckeye. Fantastic 50 gives this scenario a 39% chance of happening. Other likely first round opponents include Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary (6-1) 27%, West Geauga (6-1) 14%, and Poland (7-0) 9%. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 82nd in the state overall and 10th in Division III.

Be sure to visit JoeEitel.com for the most up-to-date high school playoff standings and Fantastic50.net for all the latest High School Football Rankings & Statistical Probabilities!

Leopards Rankings & Statistical Probabilities

Rankings

State Ranking: 82nd (Out of 720)
Division III Ranking: 10th (Out of 108)
Region 7 Ranking: 4th (Out of 27)

Strength of Schedule

Strength of schedule – 0.675
State: 184th Toughest (Out of 720)
DIII Comparison: 33rd Toughest (Out of 108)

Projections

Projected Record: 9-1
Projected Harbin Points: 25.70
Projected Region 7 Ranking: 4th Seed

Win Probabilities

7 Wins: 2%
8 Wins: 24%
9 Wins: 74%

Playoff Probabilities

Chance of Making Playoffs: 99%
Chance of a Home Game: 48%

Playoff Chance with win Over Carrollton: 99%
Playoff Chance with loss to Carrollton: 88%

Playoff Chance By Win Scenarios
7W: 19.10 (16.45-22.75), 56% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
8W: 21.90 (19.50-25.90), 99% in, 9% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 25.70 (24.40-28.05), 100% in, 63% home, proj. #4 (#1-#6)

Best Realistic Scenario
74% win all – 25.70 pts, In and 63% home (#4, range #1-#6)

Worst Realistic Scenario
1.0% LLW – 18.52 pts, 32% in, range #6-out)

Most Likely Other Scenarios
14% WLW – 21.20 pts, 98% in and 2% home (#6, range #3-out)
5.3% WWL – 24.00 pts, In and 24% home (#5, range #2-#7)
4.9% LWW – 23.10 pts, In and 15% home (#5, range #2-#7)
1.0% WLL – 19.15 pts, 62% in (#8, range #5-out)
0.4% LWL – 21.15 pts, 96% in and 5% home (#6, range #4-out)

Most Likely First-round Opponents
39% Medina Buckeye (7-0)
27% Akron SVSM (6-1)
14% West Geauga (6-1)
9% Poland (7-0)
2% Akron Hoban (7-0)
9% some other opponent

Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summary
Pre: 121.6 (#106, D3 #20) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 38% H, proj. #4
W1: 125.0 (#76, D3 #12) 88% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #3
W2: 128.1 (#61, D3 #9) 96% (need 7-3), 70% H, proj. #2
W3: 126.2 (#75, D3 #12) 92% (need 7-3), 52% H, proj. #6
W4: 123.1 (#95, D3 #15) 90% (need 7-3), 34% H, proj. #6
W5: 123.4 (#93, D3 #13) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 38% H, proj. #5
W6: 124.4 (#85, D3 #11) 95% (bubble if 7-3), 27% H, proj. #5

Championship Probabilities
Regional Championship: 2%
State Championship: 0.2%

Week-by-Week Ranking & Projection Summary
Pre: 121.6 (#106, D3 #20) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 38% H, proj. #4
W1: 125.0 (#76, D3 #12) 88% (need 7-3), 54% H, proj. #3
W2: 128.1 (#61, D3 #9) 96% (need 7-3), 70% H, proj. #2
W3: 126.2 (#75, D3 #12) 92% (need 7-3), 52% H, proj. #6
W4: 123.1 (#95, D3 #15) 90% (need 7-3), 34% H, proj. #6
W5: 123.4 (#93, D3 #13) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 38% H, proj. #5
W6: 124.4 (#85, D3 #11) 95% (bubble if 7-3), 28% H, proj. #5
W7: 125.0 (#82, D3 #10) 99% (bubble if 7-3), 48% H, proj. #4

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 7)

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