Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 7
Louisville 13.4500 (6th)
If the season ended right now the 6-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. Despite a 44-21 victory over Minerva last Friday, Louisville dropped from 4th to 6th in the region’s computer rankings. They would travel to take on the the Aurora Greenman in a rematch of last year’s Regional Quarterfinals if the season ended today. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.
Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. They have a 99% of qualifying for the postseason and control their destiny. If they win out they will have an 97% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability shrinks to 26%. Tallmadge is the most likely first round opponent for the Leopards with a 26% chance of happening. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 78th in the state overall and 13th in Division III:
Leopards Statistical Probabilities
#78 Louisville (6-1) 127.9
Ranked #13 of 105 in Division III, #4 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.654, #229 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.531, #49 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 79% outright, 90% at least a share
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 7W-1% 8W-24% 9W-75%
Harbin projections (ranges): 7W-19.48(17.80-22.25) 8W-22.20(19.85-25.45) 9W-25.35(23.65-26.55)
Playoff probabilities: 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100%
Home game probabilities: 7W-1% 8W-26% 9W-97%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#7 (#3-#out) 8W-#5 (#2-#out) 9W-#3 (#1-#7)
Projected 25.35 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #3 seed (best #1, worst out)
Playoff chance 99% (control own destiny), 78% chance of a home game
Playoff chance 99% with a win this week, and 98% with a loss
1st round opponents: Tallmadge 26%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 22%, St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 16%, Chardon 11%, Howland (Warren) 6%
Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 7)
IN THE PLAYOFFS | ||||||||
Rank | W-L | ID # | City | School | Average | Level 1 | Level 2 | L2 divisor |
1 | 7-0 | 738 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 18.5143 | 36.5 | 133.0 | 100 |
2 | 5-2 | 1522 | Tallmadge | Tallmadge | 16.3143 | 29.5 | 121.0 | 100 |
3 | 7-0 | 146 | Aurora | Aurora | 16.1857 | 37.0 | 109.0 | 100 |
4 | 5-2 | 1384 | Akron | St Vincent-St Mary | 14.0209 | 28.5 | 98.5 | 99 |
5 | 6-1 | 1264 | Poland | Poland Seminary | 13.5714 | 32.0 | 90.0 | 100 |
6 | 6-1 | 902 | Louisville | Louisville | 13.4500 | 31.5 | 89.5 | 100 |
7 | 5-2 | 1288 | Richfield | Revere | 12.3929 | 29.0 | 82.5 | 100 |
8 | 6-1 | 736 | Warren | Howland | 11.9286 | 34.5 | 70.0 | 100 |
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS | ||||||||
9 | 5-2 | 360 | Chardon | Chardon | 11.4000 | 28.0 | 74.0 | 100 |
10 | 5-2 | 802 | Chagrin Falls | Kenston | 10.0429 | 25.5 | 64.0 | 100 |
11 | 4-3 | 1678 | Chesterland | West Geauga | 9.3000 | 21.0 | 63.0 | 100 |
12 | 5-2 | 724 | Akron | Archbishop Hoban | 8.1429 | 29.0 | 40.0 | 100 |
13 | 4-3 | 112 | Alliance | Alliance | 7.3714 | 21.5 | 43.0 | 100 |
14 | 4-3 | 964 | Alliance | Marlington | 6.9286 | 20.5 | 40.0 | 100 |
15 | 3-4 | 1281 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 6.6071 | 16.5 | 42.5 | 100 |
16 | 3-4 | 304 | Canfield | Canfield | 6.5214 | 18.0 | 39.5 | 100 |
17 | 3-4 | 274 | Akron | Buchtel | 5.8469 | 17.0 | 33.5 | 98 |
18 | 3-4 | 478 | Akron | East | 5.8071 | 16.5 | 34.5 | 100 |
19 | 3-4 | 1472 | Akron | Springfield | 5.2786 | 17.0 | 28.5 | 100 |
20 | 3-4 | 634 | Geneva | Geneva | 4.7857 | 16.0 | 25.0 | 100 |
21 | 3-4 | 428 | Akron | Coventry | 4.5786 | 17.0 | 21.5 | 100 |
22 | 3-4 | 626 | Akron | Garfield | 4.1786 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 100 |
23 | 1-6 | 1432 | Canton | Canton South | 2.9357 | 5.5 | 21.5 | 100 |
24 | 1-6 | 994 | Niles | Niles McKinley | 2.2643 | 5.0 | 15.5 | 100 |
25 | 2-5 | 800 | Akron | Kenmore | 2.0429 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 100 |
26 | 1-6 | 1158 | Norton | Norton | 1.4214 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 100 |
27 | 1-6 | 1120 | Akron | North | 1.2071 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 100 |
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