Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 7

Louisville Leopards Football 2014 Intersquad Scrimmage

Louisville 13.4500 (6th)

If the season ended right now the 6-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. Beatty's Sports Blue Football Schedule Shirt Sidebar Ad SizeDespite a 44-21 victory over Minerva last Friday, Louisville dropped from 4th to 6th in the region’s computer rankings. They would travel to take on the the Aurora Greenman in a rematch of last year’s Regional Quarterfinals if the season ended today. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. They have a 99% of qualifying for the postseason and control their destiny. If they win out they will have an 97% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability shrinks to 26%. Tallmadge is the most likely first round opponent for the Leopards with a 26% chance of happening. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 78th in the state overall and 13th in Division III:

Leopards Statistical Probabilities

#78 Louisville (6-1) 127.9
Ranked #13 of 105 in Division III, #4 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.654, #229 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.531, #49 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 79% outright, 90% at least a share
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 7W-1% 8W-24% 9W-75% 
Harbin projections (ranges): 7W-19.48(17.80-22.25) 8W-22.20(19.85-25.45) 9W-25.35(23.65-26.55) 
Playoff probabilities: 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% 
Home game probabilities: 7W-1% 8W-26% 9W-97%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#7 (#3-#out) 8W-#5 (#2-#out) 9W-#3 (#1-#7) 
Projected 25.35 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #3 seed (best #1, worst out) 
Playoff chance 99% (control own destiny), 78% chance of a home game 
Playoff chance 99% with a win this week, and 98% with a loss
1st round opponents: Tallmadge 26%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 22%, St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 16%, Chardon 11%, Howland (Warren) 6%

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 7)

Top 8 qualify for playoffs
IN THE PLAYOFFS
Rank W-L ID # City School Average Level 1 Level 2 L2 divisor
1 7-0 738 Hubbard Hubbard 18.5143 36.5 133.0 100
2 5-2 1522 Tallmadge Tallmadge 16.3143 29.5 121.0 100
3 7-0 146 Aurora Aurora 16.1857 37.0 109.0 100
4 5-2 1384 Akron St Vincent-St Mary 14.0209 28.5 98.5 99
5 6-1 1264 Poland Poland Seminary 13.5714 32.0 90.0 100
6 6-1 902 Louisville Louisville 13.4500 31.5 89.5 100
7 5-2 1288 Richfield Revere 12.3929 29.0 82.5 100
8 6-1 736 Warren Howland 11.9286 34.5 70.0 100
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
9 5-2 360 Chardon Chardon 11.4000 28.0 74.0 100
10 5-2 802 Chagrin Falls Kenston 10.0429 25.5 64.0 100
11 4-3 1678 Chesterland West Geauga 9.3000 21.0 63.0 100
12 5-2 724 Akron Archbishop Hoban 8.1429 29.0 40.0 100
13 4-3 112 Alliance Alliance 7.3714 21.5 43.0 100
14 4-3 964 Alliance Marlington 6.9286 20.5 40.0 100
15 3-4 1281 Ravenna Ravenna 6.6071 16.5 42.5 100
16 3-4 304 Canfield Canfield 6.5214 18.0 39.5 100
17 3-4 274 Akron Buchtel 5.8469 17.0 33.5 98
18 3-4 478 Akron East 5.8071 16.5 34.5 100
19 3-4 1472 Akron Springfield 5.2786 17.0 28.5 100
20 3-4 634 Geneva Geneva 4.7857 16.0 25.0 100
21 3-4 428 Akron Coventry 4.5786 17.0 21.5 100
22 3-4 626 Akron Garfield 4.1786 17.0 17.5 100
23 1-6 1432 Canton Canton South 2.9357 5.5 21.5 100
24 1-6 994 Niles Niles McKinley 2.2643 5.0 15.5 100
25 2-5 800 Akron Kenmore 2.0429 11.5 4.0 100
26 1-6 1158 Norton Norton 1.4214 4.0 8.5 100
27 1-6 1120 Akron North 1.2071 6.0 3.5 100

 

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