Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 6

By Leopard Nation · Published October 9, 2014 · Updated October 14, 2014

Louisville Leopards Football 2014 At Carrollton

Louisville 11.7667 (4th)

If the season ended right now the 5-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. After a 51-0 win over West Branch last week Louisville keeps their position as the 4th seed in the Region which would earn them a home game first round. They would host the Revere Minutemen in the opening round. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. They have a 99% of qualifying for the postseason and control their destiny. If they win out they will have an 85% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability shrinks to 37%. Two-Time Defending State Champion Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary is the most likely first round opponent for the Leopards with a 25% chance. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 81st in the state overall and 15th in Division III:

Leopards Statistical Probabilities

#81 Louisville (5-1) 127.4
Ranked #15 of 105 in Division III, #5 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.660, #215 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.542, #47 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 76% outright, 92% at least a share
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 7W-4% 8W-32% 9W-64%
Harbin projections (ranges): 6W-16.80(15.15-18.95) 7W-19.45(16.80-22.75) 8W-22.65(19.85-26.40) 9W-25.85(23.55-27.55)
Playoff probabilities: 6W-11% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100%
Home game probabilities: 7W-3% 8W-37% 9W-85%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#7 (#3-#out) 8W-#5 (#2-#out) 9W-#4 (#1-#7)
Projected 25.85 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #4 seed (best #1, worst out)
Playoff chance 99% (control own destiny), 66% chance of a home game
Playoff chance 99% with a win this week, and 95% with a loss
1st round opponents: St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 25%, Revere (Richfield) 19%, Tallmadge 17%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 16%, Aurora 7%

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 6)

**Top 8 qualify for playoffs**
IN THE PLAYOFFS
Rank	W-L	ID #	City	School	Average	Level 1	Level 2	L2 divisor
1	5-1	1522	Tallmadge	Tallmadge	15.3667	29.5	104.5	100
2	6-0	738	Hubbard	Hubbard	15.2667	31.0	101.0	100
3	6-0	146	Aurora	Aurora	14.7167	32.5	93.0	100
4	5-1	902	Louisville	Louisville	11.7667	26.5	73.5	100
5	5-1	1288	Richfield	Revere	11.4833	29.0	66.5	100
6	4-2	1384	Akron	St Vincent-St Mary	10.7833	23.0	69.5	100
7	5-1	1264	Poland	Poland Seminary	10.3500	27.0	58.5	100
8	4-2	736	Warren	Howland	9.1167	22.0	54.5	100
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
9	4-2	112	Alliance	Alliance	7.4333	21.5	38.5	100
10	3-3	1678	Chesterland	West Geauga	7.4167	16.0	47.5	100
11	4-2	360	Chardon	Chardon	7.4000	22.5	36.5	100
12	4-2	802	Chagrin Falls	Kenston	7.0667	20.5	36.5	100
13	3-3	304	Canfield	Canfield	6.9500	18.0	39.5	100
14	4-2	724	Akron	Archbishop Hoban	6.2167	23.5	23.0	100
15	3-3	478	Akron	East	6.2000	16.5	34.5	100
16	3-3	1281	Ravenna	Ravenna	6.0000	16.5	32.5	100
17	3-3	634	Geneva	Geneva	5.1667	16.0	25.0	100
18	3-3	964	Alliance	Marlington	4.6333	15.5	20.5	100
19	3-3	428	Akron	Coventry	4.0333	17.0	12.0	100
20	2-4	274	Akron	Buchtel	3.0667	11.5	11.5	100
–	2-4	626	Akron	Garfield	3.0667	11.5	11.5	100
–	2-4	1472	Akron	Springfield	3.0667	11.5	11.5	100
23	2-4	800	Akron	Kenmore	1.9167	11.5	0.0	100
24	1-5	994	Niles	Niles McKinley	1.8333	5.0	10.0	100
25	1-5	1120	Akron	North	1.3500	6.0	3.5	100
26	0-6	1432	Canton	Canton South	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100
–	0-6	1158	Norton	Norton	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100