Louisville Leopards 2014 Football Playoff Picture After Week 5

By Leopard Nation · October 2, 2014

Louisville Leopards Football Tunnel 2014

Louisville 9.4500 (4th)

If the season ended right now the 4-1 Louisville Leopards would qualify for the DIII, Region 7 playoffs. As the 4th seed in the Region they would host the Warren Howland Tigers in the first round. Below you can see the full playoff picture courtesy of JoeEitel.com.

Also, Fantastic50.net statistically factors in the Leopards playoff chances & playoff opponents. They have a 99% of qualifying for the postseason and control their destiny. If they win out they will have a 94% chance of having a Home Playoff Game, but if they lose just one more game that probability falls to just 45%. Chardon is the most likely first round opponent for Louisville as that scenario has a 25% chance of happening at this point. Below is a full look at these probabilities for the Leopards who are ranked 77th in the state overall and 15th in Division III:

Leopards Statistical Probabilities

#77 Louisville (4-1) 128.3 Ranked #15 of 105 in Division III, #6 in Region 7
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.716, #165 toughest (of 721)
Division III strength-of-schedule 0.606, #35 toughest (of 105)
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 7W-4% 8W-31% 9W-65%
Harbin projections (ranges): 6W-17.30(14.85-19.55) 7W-20.05(17.75-23.30) 8W-22.65(19.80-26.35) 9W-25.70(23.50-27.50)
Playoff probabilities: 6W-36% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100%
Home game probabilities: 7W-10% 8W-45% 9W-94%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#6 (#3-#out) 8W-#5 (#2-#out) 9W-#4 (#2-#6)
Projected 25.70 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #4 seed (best #2, worst out)
Playoff chance 99% (control own destiny), 75% chance of a home game
Playoff chance 99% with a win this week, and 97% with a loss
1st round opponents: Chardon 25%, Poland Seminary (Poland) 23%, St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 13%, Aurora 10%, Howland (Warren) 9%

Harbin Computer Rankings for DIII, Region 7 (Post Week 4)

IN THE PLAYOFFS
Rank	W-L	ID #	City	School	Average	Level 1	Level 2	L2 divisor
1	5-0	1522	Tallmadge	Tallmadge	14.7000	29.5	88.0	100
2	5-0	738	Hubbard	Hubbard	13.0500	25.5	79.5	100
3	5-0	146	Aurora	Aurora	10.9000	27.0	55.0	100
4	4-1	902	Louisville	Louisville	9.4500	21.5	51.5	100
5	4-1	736	Warren	Howland	8.0500	22.0	36.5	100
6	4-1	360	Chardon	Chardon	7.6500	22.5	31.5	100
7	3-2	1384	Akron	St Vincent-St Mary	7.4500	16.5	41.5	100
8	3-2	1678	Chesterland	West Geauga	7.4000	16.0	42.0	100
–	4-1	1264	Poland	Poland Seminary	7.4000	21.5	31.0	100
OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS
10	4-1	1288	Richfield	Revere	7.3000	23.5	26.0	100
11	3-2	478	Akron	East	6.1500	16.5	28.5	100
12	4-1	724	Akron	Archbishop Hoban	5.9000	23.5	12.0	100
13	3-2	634	Geneva	Geneva	5.7000	16.0	25.0	100
14	2-3	304	Canfield	Canfield	5.1000	11.5	28.0	100
15	2-3	1281	Ravenna	Ravenna	4.9000	11.0	27.0	100
16	3-2	802	Chagrin Falls	Kenston	4.7500	15.5	16.5	100
17	3-2	428	Akron	Coventry	4.0500	17.0	6.5	100
–	3-2	112	Alliance	Alliance	4.0500	16.0	8.5	100
19	2-3	964	Alliance	Marlington	3.5500	10.0	15.5	100
20	2-3	1472	Akron	Springfield	2.9000	11.5	6.0	100
21	2-3	626	Akron	Garfield	2.8500	11.5	5.5	100
22	1-4	994	Niles	Niles McKinley	2.0000	5.0	10.0	100
23	1-4	1120	Akron	North	1.5500	6.0	3.5	100
24	1-4	274	Akron	Buchtel	1.2000	6.0	0.0	100
25	1-4	800	Akron	Kenmore	1.1000	5.5	0.0	100
26	0-5	1432	Canton	Canton South	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100
–	0-5	1158	Norton	Norton	0.0000	0.0	0.0	100